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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:19 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:46 am
That teslifi, compared pretty close to a couple others I have seen.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BCrnsn ... p=drivesdk

So given the wider population and teslafi, I think the Tesla forum must be a substantial part of the outlier group. Or the Amazon effect if you will.
You're not giving us much information on where the plot you posted came from or the background of the user (is this the 6.7% degradation person you spoke of earlier?), but if you look at my TeslaFi plot, you can see that the estimated 100% range figure has jumped around quite a lot over the lifetime of the car, presumably due to seasonal differences (in the winter, 100% range is lower than in the summer), whereas the fleet average would smooth these variations out. So the dip in range shown in this plot, may be a seasonal dip, or maybe it reflects the current trend of charging to far less than normal (I have mine set to 60% now for example), or maybe it is an outlier--hard to say without the additional data beyond the plot.

I would not say the Tesla forum [members] themselves are a substantial part of an outlier group. It's more likely that you only hear from those that are surprised at their apparent range loss (maybe this is what you mean by the Amazon effect).
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:51 am

lpickup wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:19 am
It's more likely that you only hear from those that are surprised at their apparent range loss (maybe this is what you mean by the Amazon effect).
More to the point, Doug selectively filters for TMC anecdotes of more than usual battery degradation. When is the last time Doug reported here anecdotes from TMC of people reporting outstanding low degradation ? I'll answer: never

His bias is so pronounced he effectively is a troll.
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Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
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-----
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WetEV
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:39 am

SageBrush wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:51 am
His bias is so pronounced he effectively is a troll.
As is yours.
WetEV
#49
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DougWantsALeaf
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:12 pm

The sting of being labeled a troll.

Here was a response to a m3 driver concerned about range loss.


My 2018 Model 3 AWD (LR) w/Acceleration Boost, 18" Aero, Roof Racks
310 mile original range
25K miles ~ 22 months since purchased new - 302 miles at 100% charge.
Implying a < 3% degradation so far.

- Minimal supercharging (guessing <300 kWh)
- Usually keep battery at 70% (was 80% for first 6 months)
- Will set to 90-95% for long trips, has been to 100% about 3 times.
- Never used below 10%

No science behind this, but many of the complainer are newer owners. Does Tesla source all of its packs for US customers, or is it using a supplier for some? Any chance we will get the hatch back M3 here (vs. Just Europe)? That might be a version that could be interesting.
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webeleafowners
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:38 pm

This is going to sound sad but we changed our display from range to percent soon after we got the car. It’s been that way since. I have no idea what the range would read right now at 100 percent charge. I think we have a screen shot indicating 512 kilometers from about four months ago. It hasn’t been charged to 100 percent since. Guess I should check someday. :).
2020 Model 3 Tesla. AWD with FSD. Deep metallic blue. Our daily driver.
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DougWantsALeaf
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:09 pm

That's probably smart, and is what many in the Tesla Forum suggest. As Superchargers are generally more prevalent and the car will autoroute you, the absolute range only matters when trying to get across Montana or do the alcan highway.

This is really my intellectual curiosity as to how much difference there really is behind the BMSs in the different cars.
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:49 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:12 pm
No science behind this, but many of the complainer are newer owners.
I've highlighted the key word. Again, even though the TeslaFi fleet reports may not indicate it (possibly because of the way their data is collected), I still think this is a case of newbie EV owners that are nervous about that initial drop in the range estimate that their car shows.
DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:12 pm
Does Tesla source all of its packs for US customers, or is it using a supplier for some?
They make their own packs at the Gigafactory.
DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:12 pm
Any chance we will get the hatch back M3 here (vs. Just Europe)? That might be a version that could be interesting.
Are you talking about the idea that Elon floated about having a designed in Germany car? (similar to the designed in China car?)

Let's let them actually start designing it and revealing it before we start speculating on whether it will be offered for sale in other markets. But if I had to guess, I would say the Euro-Tesla would probably be offered for sale around the world. The Chinese one? Possibly not. As much as I personally would be into that car, I think it will be very small and quite stripped down feature-wise. But I could be wrong.
...Lance

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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:32 pm

TMC has a very interesting post
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4946309/
about TMS calibration drift leading to artefactual loss of estimated range and easy recipes for mitigation and correction. The post was written by an engineer who was able to have an in-depth discussion with a technical lead at Tesla so this information is a gem.

Quite by accident, my routine charging habits lead to good battery calibration. Time will tell what fraction of range loss outliers are miscalibrations rather than true degradation but the behaviors that would lead to calibration drift are not unusual. The simple recipe is to use the scheduling functions to let the car sit for a few hours before charging, and to not charge every day unless needed. It is curious that the latter tenet runs against Elon's advice of daily charging but I have always understood his suggestion to be one of convenience rather than optimal battery management.

I've thought more than once that the reports of excessive 'degradation' might be more prevalent in the smaller battery model 3 versions which has always seemed odd since they are the same cells. Owner behaviors more common with smaller packs that lead to calibration drift would be a reasonable explanation.
Last edited by SageBrush on Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:06 pm

The above sounds pretty familiar <COUGH30kwhLeafCOUGH>.
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:03 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.

You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.
That is an amusing statement. Old cars just are not as good and new cars. They break down more, they burn more gas (and oil), they pollute more, they don't drive as nicely, they are less safe at higher speeds, and various systems might no longer function. AC broke? Open the windows. Advertised as "it runs". That's why they are cheaper.

Electric cars are not going to age exactly the same way as gas cars have. More than likely will run trouble free until they just die.

Sure, new cars may have features that are desirable (or not), but if people can't afford them that's moot. While AOTBE a BEV should be more reliable, things are rarely equal. All of my ICEs have been more reliable than the average Tesla. Course, I rate reliability highly when making purchase decisions, and it's always possible to get a lemon, but if you take care of it a reliable ICE should have about the same capability throughout its life as when you bought it. No BEV can make that claim yet.

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
Range will decrease, but many elderly and/or poor people don't travel all that much. My Grandfather never left the small town in Kansas he lived in during the last decades of his life. Visit all the corners of the town, and that would be under 10 miles. Grocery, pharmacy, friends, church, and hospital. I don't have a log, of course, but doubt if he drove more than 4 miles in any day.

My sister-in-law lives in a small town in New England. Longest trip she has taken in the past decade was to visit her mom in the hospital. About 40 miles one way. Very unlikely to take a longer trip. Unless her husband dies, she can't be away from home for more than a few hours. He doesn't leave home, unless to go to doctor or hospital.

Many people, IF ELECTRIC CARS WERE COMMON, would be happy with a quarter of the range of a 2020 Model 3LR. If cheap to buy and reliable.

I'm curious - what % of the older car owning/buying public do you think are retirees or similar whose car needs can be satisfied by what is essentially an enclosed, HVAC-equipped golf cart?
GCR:
Study finds global tipping points for EVs: 31-minute charging, 291 miles of range, $36,000

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... nge-36-000

From the study itself:
EV range is a major concern for those considering the switch from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, with eight in 10 consumers in our study identifying range as an important or very important factor. The majority of consumers told us they expect to travel at least 469km – the distance from London to Paris – in a full charge. Fleet managers have even higher expectations, averaging 550km.

The average range industry professionals told us they could achieve for an EV is 397km, just 72km short of the desired average, but still significantly less than a standard internal combustion engine vehicle - which can reach 500-1,000km on a single tank of fuel. Although the majority of journeys are shorter than the 469km tipping point, driver anxieties about the range of EVs is a significant barrier to mainstream adoption. Consumers and fleet managers also reported that access to charging infrastructure is also a factor in their decision-making, which further emphasises the issue of “range anxiety”.
As expected, the US range requirement is higher than the average, we're midpoint on price, and charging times are slightly quicker (30 min.) than the average.

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
Depends of the future, doesn't it? And the future isn't like the past, but sometimes it rhymes.

Consider the past, and the current market for ICE cars.

First owner often owns for 3-6 years, perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Then sells it for something new, or returns it at end of lease.

Second owner often owns it until 8 to 12 years, and sells it as it still has some value and is starting to get expensive to maintain.

Third owner drives it until it breaks, or needs an expensive repair soon, or serious rust, or ...

Fourth owner can't afford anything better, and "it runs". Until it doesn't.

So how do used electric cars play out? Oh, not now, in 40 years. Might it rhyme that?

Electric car of the future, with a battery that might give 1,000,000 miles, or only 300,000 if passively cooled? How might that play out over the life of a car? Other parts of the car are likely to fail first, even if passively cooled. If the wheels fall off, the value of the car might be the salvage value of the battery.

Sure, things may be completely different in the future, but for now it may well be that the value of degraded batteries for second life as stationary storage is greater than the demand for 'super golf carts', in which case there'll be a whole lot of battery-less cars with plenty of life left in them which are good for nothing but scrap, as putting a new battery in them makes no economic sense. Which gets us right back to throw-away cars, and considering the embodied energy in manufacturing and scrapping them, that's a lousy idea.

GCR:
Study: EVs will still cost more to make, even after batteries get much cheaper

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... et-cheaper


Barring life of the vehicle batteries, ISTM only battery leasing makes replacing packs commercially viable.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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