WetEV wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
GRA wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.
You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.
That is an amusing statement. Old cars just are not as good and new cars. They break down more, they burn more gas (and oil), they pollute more, they don't drive as nicely, they are less safe at higher speeds, and various systems might no longer function. AC broke? Open the windows. Advertised as "it runs". That's why they are cheaper.
Electric cars are not going to age exactly the same way as gas cars have. More than likely will run trouble free until they just die.
Sure, new cars may have features that are desirable (or not), but if people can't afford them that's moot. While AOTBE a BEV should be more reliable, things are rarely equal. All of my ICEs have been more reliable than the average Tesla. Course, I rate reliability highly when making purchase decisions, and it's always possible to get a lemon, but if you take care of it a reliable ICE should have about the same capability throughout its life as when you bought it. No BEV can make that claim yet.
WetEV wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
Range will decrease, but many elderly and/or poor people don't travel all that much. My Grandfather never left the small town in Kansas he lived in during the last decades of his life. Visit all the corners of the town, and that would be under 10 miles. Grocery, pharmacy, friends, church, and hospital. I don't have a log, of course, but doubt if he drove more than 4 miles in any day.
My sister-in-law lives in a small town in New England. Longest trip she has taken in the past decade was to visit her mom in the hospital. About 40 miles one way. Very unlikely to take a longer trip. Unless her husband dies, she can't be away from home for more than a few hours. He doesn't leave home, unless to go to doctor or hospital.
Many people,
IF ELECTRIC CARS WERE COMMON, would be happy with a quarter of the range of a 2020 Model 3LR. If cheap to buy and reliable.
I'm curious - what % of the older car owning/buying public do you think are retirees or similar whose car needs can be satisfied by what is essentially an enclosed, HVAC-equipped golf cart?
GCR:
Study finds global tipping points for EVs: 31-minute charging, 291 miles of range, $36,000
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... nge-36-000
From the study itself:
EV range is a major concern for those considering the switch from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, with eight in 10 consumers in our study identifying range as an important or very important factor. The majority of consumers told us they expect to travel at least 469km – the distance from London to Paris – in a full charge. Fleet managers have even higher expectations, averaging 550km.
The average range industry professionals told us they could achieve for an EV is 397km, just 72km short of the desired average, but still significantly less than a standard internal combustion engine vehicle - which can reach 500-1,000km on a single tank of fuel. Although the majority of journeys are shorter than the 469km tipping point, driver anxieties about the range of EVs is a significant barrier to mainstream adoption. Consumers and fleet managers also reported that access to charging infrastructure is also a factor in their decision-making, which further emphasises the issue of “range anxiety”.
As expected, the US range requirement is higher than the average, we're midpoint on price, and charging times are slightly quicker (30 min.) than the average.
WetEV wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am
GRA wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
Depends of the future, doesn't it? And the future isn't like the past, but sometimes it rhymes.
Consider the past, and the current market for ICE cars.
First owner often owns for 3-6 years, perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Then sells it for something new, or returns it at end of lease.
Second owner often owns it until 8 to 12 years, and sells it as it still has some value and is starting to get expensive to maintain.
Third owner drives it until it breaks, or needs an expensive repair soon, or serious rust, or ...
Fourth owner can't afford anything better, and "it runs". Until it doesn't.
So how do used electric cars play out? Oh, not now, in 40 years. Might it rhyme that?
Electric car of the future, with a battery that might give 1,000,000 miles, or only 300,000 if passively cooled? How might that play out over the life of a car? Other parts of the car are likely to fail first, even if passively cooled. If the wheels fall off, the value of the car might be the salvage value of the battery.
Sure, things
may be completely different in the future, but for now it may well be that the value of degraded batteries for second life as stationary storage is greater than the demand for 'super golf carts', in which case there'll be a whole lot of battery-less cars with plenty of life left in them which are good for nothing but scrap, as putting a new battery in them makes no economic sense. Which gets us right back to throw-away cars, and considering the embodied energy in manufacturing and scrapping them, that's a lousy idea.
GCR:
Study: EVs will still cost more to make, even after batteries get much cheaper
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... et-cheaper
Barring life of the vehicle batteries, ISTM only battery leasing makes replacing packs commercially viable.