Tesla Model X

[keydiver]

The ~$80,000 base model X has reportedly been aborted before the first one was even delivered, even earlier than the ~$57,000 Model S was.

Personally, I think you are reading more into this than necessary. The 5 kWh increase is undoubtedly the result of a newer, better chemistry, just as the 60 kWh S became 70 kWh, and the 85 kWh S became 90 kWh. They haven't "aborted" making the base model, it just evolved into a 75 kWh battery, and it coincided with the Tesla price increase that they have been forecasting.
Do you SERIOUSLY think Tesla will renege on it's $35,000 Model 3 promise?? :? That would be a MUCH more serious PR problem than when they dropped the 40 kWh S because of insufficient orders (which pissed me off at the time and put me in a Leaf instead), or the Model X 70 kWh evolving into 75 kWh for $3,000 more. Price increase on the base Model 3: NOT going to happen. Tesla has too much of their reputation riding on this. They will either delay production until they can hit the $35,000 target, or they will strip out some of the features to still keep it profitable.
Nissan today can sell a Leaf for $29,000 (List price), while still splitting the profits with your local dealer, and buying their batteries elsewhere. I don't know why you don't think Tesla will be able to sell the Model 3 18+ months from now for $35,000, with no middle man, and manufacturing their own batteries.

 

[edatoakrun]

...Do you SERIOUSLY think Tesla will renege on it's $35,000 Model 3 promise??...

Since Tesla has reneged on every other initial commitment on prices and delivery dates, for every other Vehicle it has ever produced, I'd say that is a very likely occurrence.

But I also think you should look at how illusory that $35,000 promise from Tesla actually is.

If Tesla is still viable by ~2020, the rapid and continuing deflation in BEV prices may mean a significant number of stripper 3s could be sold at that price.

But I'd expect 2018 model 3 deliveries (if Tesla can even begin large scale production by then) will be limited to highly-optioned vehicles, and the average sale price will probably exceed $50,000.

Back on-topic.

If Tesla cant get the Falcon Wing Doors (or even the front doors) on the model Xs to work reliably, and fairly soon, I doubt we'll ever see a Tesla model three at all.

Two of the multiple threads at the Tesla forum on the subject:

Crunch! Falcon Wing Doors fail to sense obstacle

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/crunch-falcon-wing-doors-fail-to-sense-obstacle.68268/

Post Initial Problems with the Model X

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/post-initial-problems-with-the-model-x.59839/page-16

 

[lorenfb]

Do you SERIOUSLY think Tesla will renege on it's $35,000 Model 3 promise?? :? That would be a MUCH more serious PR problem than when they dropped the 40 kWh S because of insufficient orders (which pissed me off at the time and put me in a Leaf instead), or the Model X 70 kWh evolving into 75 kWh for $3,000 more. Price increase on the base Model 3: NOT going to happen. Tesla has too much of their reputation riding on this. They will either delay production until they can hit the $35,000 target, or they will strip out some of the features to still keep it profitable.

So what, Elon will as usual quote from his "book-of-hyperbole" and that will mollify the typical irrational TSLA
shareholder.

 

[cwerdna]

If Tesla cant get the Falcon Wing Doors (or even the front doors) on the model Xs to work reliably, and fairly soon, I doubt we'll ever see a Tesla model three at all.

I'm not sure how the two are connected.

Are you saying that one or some of of these?
- Tesla will go out of business due to the Model X door issues
- Tesla will have to divert too many resources to fix the Model X door issues, thus delaying the Model 3 or forcing a cancelling in favor of some other model
- Model X door issues combined with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect on the S due to the attraction of the 3's (supposed) price for the range will cause Tesla to go under

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla hit the initial price target for the Model S.
They also hit the initial price target of the Model X, which was "about 10% more than the price of a similarly equipped Model S".

There are a couple of people around here that simply hate Tesla and reads any news they can in the worst possible light.
All you can do is watch time go by and watch their predictions of the end of Tesla or collapse of TSLA be proven wrong again, and again, and again.

 

[edatoakrun]

If Tesla cant get the Falcon Wing Doors (or even the front doors) on the model Xs to work reliably, and fairly soon, I doubt we'll ever see a Tesla model three at all.

I'm not sure how the two are connected...

Anything that causes TSLA to significantly miss its 2016 sales/revenues targets (and less-than-reliable model X doors, could certainly be a factor) might prevent it from raising more cash from another equity offering in ~the next year, which it looks very likely to require to bridge a continuing 2017 gap between revenue and expenditures.

 

[scottf200]

My model X FaWD are working very well. They seemed to be improving with software updates as owners demonstrate 100s of different scenarios and test cases. New Xs than mine also have the latest generation (iteration) of sensors. Even tho my FaWDs are working well the service manager offered to get me to the current generation when they replace a 2nd row seat backing (small scratch upon delivery) which noone has even noticed it as much as I've shown it off. Tesla service has been outstanding.

 

[lorenfb]

Anything that causes TSLA to significantly miss its 2016 sales/revenues targets (and less-than-reliable model X doors, could certainly be a factor) might prevent it from raising more cash from another equity offering in ~the next year, which it looks very likely to require to bridge a continuing 2017 gap between revenue and expenditures.

Yes, that's true with most corporations in a rational equity market, which TSLA is really not part of.
You have the likes of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley who always forecasts some high stock multiple
before his firm floats another equity funding or as was done to generate $2.2B funding from convertible
debentures for GF, which Panasonic was to match over two years ago but hasn't. Or you have Elon 'masking'
a negative outlook, e.g. missed 2016 Q1 guidance, with daily tweets about how many Model 3 reservations
have been booked.

Bottom Line: Tesla will "skate" until late 2017 when the reality of a Model 3 becomes apparent.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Yikes

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/early-build-tesla-model-x-suvs-face-quality-133951162.html

It takes a special kind of fanboy to part with that much money and then deal with these sorts of issues.

 

[cwerdna]

Yikes

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/early-build-tesla-model-x-suvs-face-quality-133951162.html

It takes a special kind of fanboy to part with that much money and then deal with these sorts of issues.

The front and rear (falcon wing) door problems seem pretty common on "TMC". There is a thread about the windshield image doubling problem. CR's characterizations about message boards is about right, except I hadn't seen posts about HVAC issues as I don't really have time to monitor there and I don't care about the Model X anyway. I'd never want one.

These types of issues are exactly why I wouldn't want to be in the first batch of Model 3 owners. I didn't put $1K down and now I'd be VERY far back in line anyway as I wouldn't want a heavily optioned unit, assuming I wanted one at all.

I posted mostly this this in another board re: problems w/both the falcon wing doors and the latches of the regular front doors, such as https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...l-to-sense-obstacle.68268/page-2#post-1484546 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/so-sad-the-x-is-going-back-to-service-center.66455/.

One guy also has pointers to other threads re: latch issues at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...s-with-the-model-x.59839/page-14#post-1471614 and a mention of his latch problems at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/preventing-doors-from-losing-calibration.68036/#post-1480798.

Seems like Elon's admission of hubris is right. So far, it looks like the cool factor of the doors has been outweighed by the problems. Not sure what's up w/the latches since I haven't followed the causes of that. What a shame...

 

[mwalsh]

Yikes

It takes a special kind of fanboy to part with that much money and then deal with these sorts of issues.

The poisoned Koolade may look and taste delicious, but it will still leave your bloated corpse sitting in a pool of excreted bodily fluids once you've succumbed to it.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I wonder if they have a redesign in the works for the model X that eliminates some of these esoteric features like the fw doors and windshield. They would have been way ahead of the game to just make it a "tall" model S and stick with tried and true approaches, rather than coming up with problematic solutions to non-existent problems.

They really screwed the pooch on this one, hopefully the damage can be contained. I can see Model X being to Tesla what Edsel was to Ford.

 

[edatoakrun]

The business press, including the WSJ, has picked up on the X's glitches.

At least one member of the X's primary target market, the soccer mom demographic, seems to be cutting Tesla some slack, even after suffering catastrophic embarrassment during the morning carpool...

IMO, its only likely to be a big problem for TSLA, if very many of the Xs require more than one or two trips to the dealer to fix.

Quality Woes a Challenge for Tesla’s High-Volume Car

Door and seat glitches with Model X sport-utility overshadow mass-market ambitions

Anne Carter had her Tesla Motors Inc. Model X sport-utility vehicle for a few days before the $138,000 electric vehicle suffered a mechanical malfunction.

On a recent morning, the car’s falcon-wing doors wouldn’t open as she prepared to drive her children’s carpool to school. “It’s a bummer; you spent all this money…and the doors won’t open,” she said in an interview while waiting for the Model X to be picked up for repairs. She expected some issues, but feels embarrassed that friends might think: “Look at the Carters—they spent all this money and the doors don’t work.”...

“I am totally willing to overlook the issues if Tesla fixes it,” Ms. Carter said, estimating one or two trips to the dealer is what it should take. If she had the same problem on her Cadillac Escalade SUV, she said she “would be furious.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/quality-woes-a-challenge-for-teslas-high-volume-car-1461093171

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

^^^ and after all, what other people think is the most important consideration.

 

[ranss12]

edatoakrun wrote:
Anything that causes TSLA to significantly miss its 2016 sales/revenues targets (and less-than-reliable model X doors, could certainly be a factor) might prevent it from raising more cash from another equity offering in ~the next year, which it looks very likely to require to bridge a continuing 2017 gap between revenue and expenditures.

Yes, that's true with most corporations in a rational equity market, which TSLA is really not part of.
You have the likes of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley who always forecasts some high stock multiple
before his firm floats another equity funding or as was done to generate $2.2B funding from convertible
debentures for GF, which Panasonic was to match over two years ago but hasn't. Or you have Elon 'masking'
a negative outlook, e.g. missed 2016 Q1 guidance, with daily tweets about how many Model 3 reservations
have been booked.

Bottom Line: Tesla will "skate" until late 2017 when the reality of a Model 3 becomes apparent.

Anyone who thinks that Tesla will have an existential cash crunch problem isn't remembering how Elon, when much poorer, bailed out Tesla. Now with his many billions of SpaceX and SolarCity stock he is in a much better position to provide a cash infusion to Tesla if it comes to that. He won't let Tesla go into bankruptcy or otherwise die.

 

[lorenfb]

^^^ and after all, what other people think is the most important consideration.

And what would life be without status symbols? The new Tesla owner who previously had to drive his M/B
with his Rolex watch arm hanging-out, can now stay cooler in SoCal with the window up during summer
drives.

 

[edatoakrun]

Anyone who thinks that Tesla will have an existential cash crunch problem isn't remembering how Elon, when much poorer, bailed out Tesla. Now with his many billions of SpaceX and SolarCity stock he is in a much better position to provide a cash infusion to Tesla if it comes to that. He won't let Tesla go into bankruptcy or otherwise die.

Actually, Musk's borrowing from TSLA's underwriters against his equity holdings and his precarious financial position in general, has (IIRC) been emphasized as a risk factor for shareholders in every prospectus TSLA has ever issued, including the one below, from 2015:

RISK FACTORS

Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. In addition to the other information contained in this prospectus supplement, the accompanying prospectus and in documents that we incorporate by reference, you should carefully consider the risks discussed below...

Mr. Musk borrowed funds from affiliates of certain of our underwriters and has pledged shares of our common stock to secure these borrowings. The forced sale of these shares pursuant to a margin call could cause our stock price to decline and negatively impact our business.

...We are not a party to these loans, which are full recourse against Mr. Musk and the Trust and are secured by pledges of a portion of the Tesla common stock currently owned by Mr. Musk and the Trust and other shares of capital stock of unrelated entities owned by Mr. Musk and the Trust.

If the price of our common stock declines, Mr. Musk may be forced by one or more of the banking institutions to provide additional collateral for the loans or to sell shares of Tesla common stock in order to remain within the margin limitations imposed under the terms of his loans. The loans between these banking institutions on the one hand, and Mr. Musk and the Trust on the other hand, prohibit the non-pledged shares currently owned by Mr. Musk and the Trust from being pledged to secure any other loans. These factors may limit Mr. Musk’s ability to either pledge additional shares of Tesla common stock or sell shares of Tesla common stock as a means to avoid or satisfy a margin call with respect to his pledged Tesla common stock in the event of a decline in our stock price that is large enough to trigger a margin call. Any sales of common stock following a margin call that is not satisfied may cause the price of our common stock to decline further...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Speaking of Musk, one concern as I recall he made some public statements that the FW doors were not causing problems in the model X development. Given the lawsuit against the supplier and the problems customers are seeing it seems that might not have been exactly the case. Expect the lawyers to glom onto that if the stock tanks.

 

[wwhitney]

The poisoned Koolade may look and taste delicious, but it will still leave your bloated corpse sitting in a pool of excreted bodily fluids once you've succumbed to it.

OK, I have to ask since no one else has: what grievous injury has Tesla done to you to warrant such rhetoric? I'm trying to stay neutral myself.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[Zythryn]

The poisoned Koolade may look and taste delicious, but it will still leave your bloated corpse sitting in a pool of excreted bodily fluids once you've succumbed to it.

OK, I have to ask since no one else has: what grievous injury has Tesla done to you to warrant such rhetoric? I'm trying to stay neutral myself.

Cheers, Wayne

Some of these guys are so funny, all you can do is shake your head and see how long they can keep up the vendetta.