2 Years of Leaf : EV Activitists' Hopes and Reality

[TomT]

Yep, I readily agree with all three of your assertions.

Now that the much awaited Leaf is 2 years old, I thought it was a good time to relook at some of our hopes from 2 years ago and the reality we see today. I'll just list the 3 most important ones that I see.

 

[TonyWilliams]

So, the future of Leaf (and EVs in general) is now somewhat uncertain. Will the low sales and slow change continue even after MY13 is introduced ? What will happen to the large battery factory that Nissan has built ?

Will there be some other breakthrough that actually does what Leaf we thought would do ?

I think as a mass market vehicle, EV's are still another generation or maybe two away. Even with high priced gasoline at $10+ per gallon, I think you'll see wholesale conversions to cheap natural gas before widespread EV adoption. Even hybrids are still a tiny portion of the 75 million cars sold around the world annually.

That doesn't mean that the LEAF can't be successful long term, but I doubt it. I don't see Nissan addressing battery thermal issues with the next generation battery (due 2014/2015), mostly because few people are NOT buying the car for a perception of rapid range reduction; 99% of those not buying today would not buy even if the battery never degraded ever, forever. Even if the car had 150 miles of real range (not made up Nissan BS), those of us in the EV world would probably faint, but the mass audience would barely yawn. Giving away the cars with unsustainable sub $200 leases barely makes a bump in sales.

Neither cheap acquisition or purchase price, double range, or zero technical problems will gain mass appeal today.

The charging infrastructure is decades away from being anything even close to oil stations. There are entire STATES in the USA without any appreciable infrastructure. When there is a single EV dealer in the state of Montana, I'll think there's at least hope.

Besides Nissan and BMW, I do not see much hope for a mass market EV car on the horizon. I think the BMW products will be a high priced niche within a niche, and therefore not widely adopted. Much like the market that BMW has now with oil cars.

Tesla could surprise me with the BlueStar, but I think it will be similar in range/concept/price to the BMW product than the LEAF, and therefore once again, a niche in a niche and not widely adopted. The $50,000 to $100,000 Model S/X are going to be tough to sustain over the next 5-10 years, when like the LEAF, all the excited guys like me have bought one (or two). The normal "rich" guy will just get a BMW, Lexus, Mercedes Benz, Infiniti, et al oil burner for those prices like they do today.

All the California compliance cars, which make up the remaining EV offerings (except real fringes like Coda and neighborhood EV's) could go away in 2 seconds, just like they did in 2003. I'm sure Toyota thought it would be easy to sell 2600 compliance Rav4's, but already they are having problems with less than three months on the market (140 sold so far, with 55 of those going directly to dealers).

 

[GetOffYourGas]

- EV "value" is much more related to electricity costs than I had realized. In areas where electricty is inexpensive, like around here, an EV can often be justified purely on the fuel savings alone. In other areas, the cost of electricity may not make fuel savings nearly as attractive. I think this is one reason that PV solar is an important partner technology to EVs: PV tends to cap the fuel price for EV charging. Without it, the cost of fueling an EV is just as indeterminant as the cost of fueling a gasoline car.

I agree completely. Plus, PV systems offer an immediate rebuttal to the "coal car" argument.

My biggest disappointment is the range. After hearing 100 miles for so many months, the 73 miles was flat-out disappointing.

I am actually pleasantly surprised at the growth of public L2 charging around here, but completely disappointed at the $2.40/hr price point they've chosen. Public charging will have to be sorted out over the next few years.

I have to say that of the 3 things that EVNow lists, I never personally thought any of them would happen in the first two years, or the first generation of Leaf. Overall, I'm not really surprised that we are where we are today.

 

[cwerdna]

My biggest disappointment is the range. After hearing 100 miles for so many months, the 73 miles was flat-out disappointing.

I am actually pleasantly surprised at the growth of public L2 charging around here, but completely disappointed at the $2.40/hr price point they've chosen. Public charging will have to be sorted out over the next few years.

The few public L2s available get very little use. I can't imagine using one except in an emergency.

The worst part is that Nissan (or at least their reps at auto shows) are still saying 100 miles. :roll: I posted about it at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=246184#p246184" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

As for public charging, if I had a Leaf, I couldn't see myself using them except in emergencies as well unless they were either free or the price was comparable to charging at home or that of fueling my Prius. Free is not sustainable unless they're subsidized by someone (e.g. owner of the business they're located at). If the price is too high, nobody will use them except in emergencies, which isn't sustainable either.

 

[DaveEV]

As for public charging, if I had a Leaf, I couldn't see myself using them except in emergencies as well unless they were either free or the price was comparable to charging at home or that of fueling my Prius. Free is not sustainable unless they're subsidized by someone (e.g. owner of the business they're located at). If the price is too high, nobody will use them except in emergencies, which isn't sustainable either.

The cost to charge in public will never be comparable to the cost of charging at home if those costs are to be sufficient to at least break even in a reasonable time frame.

Get over it - sustainable public charging in public will always cost more than charging at home unless someone is willing to subsidize it. Or just keep on driving the Prius.

 

[TonyWilliams]

... either free or the price was comparable to charging at home or that of fueling my Prius. Free is not sustainable unless they're subsidized by someone (e.g. owner of the business they're located at). If the price is too high, nobody will use them except in emergencies, which isn't sustainable either.

No true at all. Yes, many early LEAF adopters are clearly in the Just-Drive-The-Prius(TM) mindset, but that's not the public at large.

Most folks actually buy 17 cent Cokes for $1.50 or more in vending machines.

 

[TomT]

But that is partially because they can't get them for 17 cents at home either... It's also about perceived value...

Most folks actually buy 17 cent Cokes for $1.50 or more in vending machines.

 

[TonyWilliams]

But that is partially because they can't get them for 17 cents at home either... It's also about perceived value...

Most folks actually buy 17 cent Cokes for $1.50 or more in vending machines.

Have you been to a little place called Costco?

 

[TomT]

All the time. It's more than 17 cents each for my Coke Zero Vanilla... And again, it is more about perceived value than actual cost... Many find a buck for a Coke to be a better value and more reasonable than a buck for an hour of power...

Have you been to a little place called Costco?

 

[evnow]

Apparently not just EV Enthusiasts, but Nissan too expected much higher demand.

http://www.plugincars.com/nissan-execs-admit-arrogance-ev-125738.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Automotive News today is quoting Al Castignetti, Nissan vice president for sales: "We were a little bit arrogant as a manufacturer when we went to the 50-state rollout." Castignetti spoke with Automotive News in late November. "We had assumed that there were people just waiting for the vehicle who would raise their hand and say, 'Give me a LEAF, give me a LEAF, give me a LEAF.'"

 

[walterbays]

As for public charging, if I had a Leaf, I couldn't see myself using them except in emergencies as well unless they were either free or the price was comparable to charging at home or that of fueling my Prius. Free is not sustainable unless they're subsidized by someone (e.g. owner of the business they're located at). If the price is too high, nobody will use them except in emergencies, which isn't sustainable either.

Wifi costs money to install and operate, yet is widespread. Many places it's free. Many places it's free to subscribers (e.g. T-Mobile phone or AT&T television). Many places it's free to customers (e.g. hotels and coffee shops). Some places it's free with advertisements (e.g. airports). Some places it's available for a fee.

Parking costs a lot of money to install (land and structures) and costs money to maintain, yet it is widespread. Many places it's free. Many places it's free to customers. Many places it's available for a fee. Or some amount of free time may be available with qualifying purchase, after which it's by hourly fee.

Why would I ever pay for Wifi which I can get at home for free, or pay to park when I can park in my garage for free? Because I want to park or to use Wifi in another location, the same reason I pay for car charging. As the market matures I hope we'll see the same sorts of pay models that we see for Wifi and parking and it will often be free for customers.

I don't think prices need to match home prices, lest people "Just Drive the Prius," because if those people need to make long trips regularly and evaluated their options they would have chosen to "Just Buy the Prius" instead of the EV. Rather the compelling value proposition for paid charging, especially QC, is to occasionally extend an EV city car into an EV regional car: On most days when you do local driving you get cheap EV cost per mile. And on days when you need the long range characteristic of a gas car you can still drive your EV paying a cost per mile equivalent to the gas car. Charging stations whose fees are substantially higher per mile than gasoline will mostly fail, used only as an emergency alternative to the tow truck. Charging stations whose fees are at or below the price of gasoline, as viewed by the driver of a Volt who is able to choose between charging and pumping, will succeed.

 

[tps]

For me, after 10 1/2 months of driving the LEAF, I'll say it has worked out as planned, maybe a bit better. No, I've never gotten 100 miles out of a charge, but with avaerage daily usage or 40 miles, I get plenty of range charging to 80%. For the most part, I've found the LEAF to be a well engineered car and very enjoyable to drive.

I think the largest obstacle to buying an EV is the state of the public charging network. Back in March 2011 when I first rented the Hertz LEAF in NYC, there were a few L2 charging spots in NYC, but very few elsewhere in the area. By the summer of 2011, when I rented that LEAF and drove it here to Philadelphia, there was a public charging station (L6-20) at the train station in Hamilton NJ, which is what made the trip possible, as well as 1 public charging point in South Philly. By now, al little over a year and a half later, there are several charging points in town. However, they are all L2 and it's sometimes hard to know if you can rely on them. The ultimate EV paradigm of charging whenever parked will require a LOT more public L2 charge points. And the we'll need to get quick charging built out along the freeways. (PA Turnpike is supposed to install QC at all service plazas next year.) I see this as a hopeful sign, but even at the current rate, it'll be a while until the infrastructure can really support EVs properly.

I think the current LEAF will become a lot more attractive as the public charging network is built out. But it's a chicken-and-egg thing. I'm hoping that, as the network is built out, more LEAFs are sold, and as more LEAFs are sold, the network is further built out.

 

[Nubo]

...The ultimate EV paradigm of charging whenever parked will require a LOT more public L2 charge points. And the we'll need to get quick charging built out along the freeways. (PA Turnpike is supposed to install QC at all service plazas next year.) I see this as a hopeful sign, but even at the current rate, it'll be a while until the infrastructure can really support EVs properly. ...

There's a good chance that battery technology will advance a lot quicker than such an L2 infrastructure can or will be built out, and will obviate it.

With a 200 mile pack there is little need for L2. With a 300 mile pack how often would one need L2? With a 400 mile pack?... L2 is currently useful only because of a temporary limitation of battery technology. What may be needed long-term are quick-charge stations to enable cross-country drives, such as Tesla is already implementing. Or alternatively, overnight charging provided with lodging for long-distance travelers.

My last public charge was several months ago. And I have only had about 3 trips in the year that I've owned the car that actually depended on L2 charging. And I live in an area that is comparatively bristling with L2 opportunities. Even with the LEAF's nominal 70 mile range almost all my driving is done from home charging. And that's perfectly ok. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars to attempt to make 21kWH cars into something they are not, is probably not the best use of funds. Spend it instead on battery research so EV drivers don't have to worry about scrounging power.

 

[evnow]

With a 200 mile pack there is little need for L2. With a 300 mile pack how often would one need L2? With a 400 mile pack?... L2 is currently useful only because of a temporary limitation of battery technology.

I've proposed that batteries will double in capacity (and halve in price) every five years - that seems to be a little aggressive. Even so, may be we will get a 400 mile pack Leaf in 20 years.

We need QC everywhere. That is the best anti-dote for range anxiety.

L2 everywhere is also very useful. When I'm shopping at a few places, a 20 mile (6.6 kW) an hour charge in 3 places almost doubles my range. Esp. in winter that would be great for keeping the car warm.

 

[DaveEV]

L2 everywhere is also very useful. When I'm shopping at a few places, a 20 mile (6.6 kW) an hour charge in 3 places almost doubles my range. Esp. in winter that would be great for keeping the car warm.

L2 or even L1 charging at work is a real benefit for those that need it. Certainly PHEVs will need/want it even if the typical EV only needs it occasionally and PHEVs appear to be in a position to outsell EVs for the foreseeable future since Nissan and Tesla are the only 2 companies with wide-appeal EVs designed to sell in volume - everyone else is still in wait-and-see mode.

 

[Ingineer]

L2 becomes a lot more useful with 6.6kW charging. I gain over 2 miles every 5 minutes, which makes finding and plugging in, even for only 20 minutes, a really useful exercise.

The Leaf was clearly rushed to market, and Nissan engineered it for the Japanese market where they have over a thousand QC's in place. The 3.3kW charger makes sense there, but stinks here. I think Tesla has it right with about 10kW. Too bad also the public EVSE's can't deliver that.

I'm hoping the Mark 2 Leaf will fix a lot of the issues and the expected price drop will make it more attractive to a wider audience. Their battery plant reportedly has the capacity to make an extra 50,000 packs each year over the 150,000 Leafs they have capacity for, so may be we'll see them step up an offer new packs for all the degraded ones. (being optimistic!)

-Phil

 

[TomT]

I got 107 miles out of the car once but that was with a 100% charge, driving much slower than I am normally comfortable with, hypermiling as much as possible and being ultra efficient, and generally being very anal... It was a day when I needed every mile of range and not something I would enjoy having to do on a regular basis. It was early on in ownership when I still had more than 275 Gids of capacity...

No, I've never gotten 100 miles out of a charge, but with avaerage daily usage or 40 miles, I get plenty of range charging to 80%.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

Their battery plant reportedly has the capacity to make an extra 50,000 packs each year over the 150,000 Leafs they have capacity for, so may be we'll see them step up an offer new packs for all the degraded ones. (being optimistic!) -Phil

production capacity and output are 2 different things but lets hope Nissan will produce and sell 50K Leaf in USA in 2013

 

[cwerdna]

production capacity and output are 2 different things but lets hope Nissan will produce and sell 50K Leaf in USA in 2013

Sell 50K in the US in 2013? That seems pretty hard if you look at the CYTD values at http://www.hybridcars.com/news/december-2011-dashboard-sales-still-climbing-35093.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (I wonder if the Camry Hybrid CYTD figures are right for Dec '11) and http://www.hybridcars.com/news/november-2012-dashboard-65420.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

 

[Ingineer]

Well, just for speaking, let's say that the base Leaf "S" trim goes on sale for $28k MSRP. That's $18k after rebates in CA. They'd probably sell all they could produce.

Now, I'm not saying they are going to discount them that much, but anything's possible.

In any event, they should have plenty of extra pack capacity.

-Phil