2 Years of Leaf : EV Activitists' Hopes and Reality

[coolfilmaker]

There's a good chance that battery technology will advance a lot quicker than such an L2 infrastructure can or will be built out, and will obviate it.

I actually think Tesla actually limited their pack to 85 Kwh at least partly to give them an excuse to build an incredibly robust charging network. Elon even said that they could have made a 500 mile range car, but that he choose not to because he believed that their superchargers would eliminate the need for one.

Once they do come out with a 500 mile range car and they up the superchargers to 120 Kw, gas cars will really not be able to compete. I only wish Nissan could have had this much vision.

 

[GRA]

There's a good chance that battery technology will advance a lot quicker than such an L2 infrastructure can or will be built out, and will obviate it.

I actually think Tesla actually limited their pack to 85 Kwh at least partly to give them an excuse to build an incredibly robust charging network. Elon even said that they could have made a 500 mile range car, but that he choose not to because he believed that their superchargers would eliminate the need for one.

Once they do come out with a 500 mile range car and they up the superchargers to 120 Kw, gas cars will really not be able to compete. I only wish Nissan could have had this much vision.

You could probably make a 500 mile range car the size of the S, but the battery pack would weigh at least 2,500 lb. using current technology (1,200 lb. for 85kWh, and you'd need more than double for the extra weight), with the rest of the components beefed up to match, i.e. curb weight upwards of 6,000 lb. The price would presumably have to be somewhere in the $120 - $150k range. Elon is great at spin, but a lot of what he says should be taken with a large pile of salt.

 

[smkettner]

And when Leaf was brought to market crude price was higher than today and rising.
EVs will need $5+ gas for 12+ months to really take off. May not happen for an extended period.

 

[derkraut]

There's a good chance that battery technology will advance a lot quicker than such an L2 infrastructure can or will be built out, and will obviate it.

I actually think Tesla actually limited their pack to 85 Kwh at least partly to give them an excuse to build an incredibly robust charging network. Elon even said that they could have made a 500 mile range car, but that he choose not to because he believed that their superchargers would eliminate the need for one.

Once they do come out with a 500 mile range car and they up the superchargers to 120 Kw, gas cars will really not be able to compete. I only wish Nissan could have had this much vision.

You could probably make a 500 mile range car the size of the S, but the battery pack would weigh at least 2,500 lb. using current technology (1,200 lb. for 85kWh, and you'd need more than double for the extra weight), with the rest of the components beefed up to match, i.e. curb weight upwards of 6,000 lb. The price would presumably have to be somewhere in the $120 - $150k range. Elon is great at spin, but a lot of what he says should be taken with a large pile of salt.

+1; talk is cheap. Tesla continues to pile up huge losses. I'm able---but not willing--- to buy a Tesla until I am reasonably confident that the company will survive. I do hope they emerge as a successful, profitable company. We'll see.

 

[coolfilmaker]

+1; talk is cheap. Tesla continues to pile up huge losses. I'm able---but not willing--- to buy a Tesla until I am reasonably confident that the company will survive. I do hope they emerge as a successful, profitable company. We'll see.

I suppose you think this is just talk too?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/275821969415483393" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

I suppose you think this is just talk too?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/275821969415483393" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL. +ve "cash flow" for a week ?!? Give me a break. If you take a week in which you don't pay your employees or vendors, that shouldn't be too difficult.

 

[Nubo]

I suppose you think this is just talk too?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/275821969415483393" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL. +ve "cash flow" for a week ?!? Give me a break. If you take a week in which you don't pay your employees or vendors, that shouldn't be too difficult.

Now would you buy....?

http://www.texnews.com/1998/biz/app1015.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

I suppose you think this is just talk too?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/275821969415483393" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOL. +ve "cash flow" for a week ?!? Give me a break. If you take a week in which you don't pay your employees or vendors, that shouldn't be too difficult.

Indeed. As was pointed out on one of the EV websites, Tesla has been cash positive for a week before; it happened at least once with the Roadster. That's a long way from making a profit for the year. I certainly hope they make it, and don't become the next DeLorean (H'mm, what is the designer drug of choice these days?). They've certainly got a far better chance than most U.S. auto startups of the last 70 years or so.

 

[evnow]

Now would you buy....?

http://www.texnews.com/1998/biz/app1015.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll when Tesla posts their first year of profit - not week of +ve cash flow.

I'm assuming here that you have some finance background to understand what is happening. Otherwise, nevermind.

 

[Train]

I've been talking about reality for a couple years here. Looks like it's just as I stated it would be.

 

[evnow]

I've been talking about reality for a couple years here. Looks like it's just as I stated it would be.

You were just cheerleading for Volt. That hasn't done too well either ...

 

[Nubo]

Now would you buy....?

http://www.texnews.com/1998/biz/app1015.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll when Tesla posts their first year of profit - not week of +ve cash flow.

I'm assuming here that you have some finance background to understand what is happening. Otherwise, nevermind.

Simply pointing out that even the most phenomenal of successes start modestly. Shortly before that turnaround year, Michael Dell had issued his opinion that everyone concerned would be better off if Apple would simply liquidate. I imagine he had some finance background.

 

[evnow]

Simply pointing out that even the most phenomenal of successes start modestly.

Yes - but every company that starts modestly (don't every new company start modestly ?) doesn't end up as the largest company on the stock market. Just as every dropout doesn't become Bill Gates.

So, pointing out such things are not useful to figuring out where Tesla is headed.

 

[tps]

I actually think Tesla actually limited their pack to 85 Kwh at least partly to give them an excuse to build an incredibly robust charging network. Elon even said that they could have made a 500 mile range car, but that he choose not to because he believed that their superchargers would eliminate the need for one.

Once they do come out with a 500 mile range car and they up the superchargers to 120 Kw, gas cars will really not be able to compete. I only wish Nissan could have had this much vision.

IMHO, a 500 mile range car is not a vision which fits the EV paradigm. The reason people want 500 miles now is because the charging network is still infintesimal compared to what it needs to be to fulfull the paradigm (the car is charging whenever parked and quick charge as necessary). The LEAF would work for a LOT of people IF there was plentiful charging at any parking spot and fast charging along freeways and major highways. Nissan has the long term vision right, but it will take a while to get there.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

IMHO, a 500 mile range car is not a vision which fits the EV paradigm. The reason people want 500 miles now is because the charging network is still infintesimal compared to what it needs to be to fulfull the paradigm (the car is charging whenever parked and quick charge as necessary). The LEAF would work for a LOT of people IF there was plentiful charging at any parking spot and fast charging along freeways and major highways. Nissan has the long term vision right, but it will take a while to get there.

I do not want 500 mile range ev, but car that will fit my needs, for some, present Leaf range is more than sufficient, unfortunately for me with no infrastructure, ev with 100- 150 highway mile range is needed.

 

[TomT]

I think it will be a long time, if ever, before we see a charging opportunity at every parking spot... And with a practical freeway range of about 50 miles between typical QCs, I don't think that would work for most people... The Leaf needs more range to gain greater acceptance among the masses...

The LEAF would work for a LOT of people IF there was plentiful charging at any parking spot and fast charging along freeways and major highways. Nissan has the long term vision right, but it will take a while to get there.

 

[jackal]

.. unfortunately for me with no infrastructure, ev with 100- 150 highway mile range is needed.

I wish that too. I am keeping my Prius just so that I can make a weekend trip that is 120 miles with uphill. I would so pay for a bigger battery pack option if they had one.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Tesla's near-term supercharger plan plus a model S works for me in all ways but cost. And costs have come down before for other technologies. While that's no guarantee of the future of EVs, it is promising.

Here in the northeast, it is not uncommon for families to be spread out over hundreds of miles. I will drive 250 miles each way to bring my kids to see their grandparents for Christmas. And that is somewhat typical. A trip of up to 400 miles (each way) happens multiple times a year. (too often to justify renting). However, most don't attempt this trips without a stop. So I tend to agree with Musk that the 85kWh Model S, with the superchargers, enables these trips in the same time as an ICE, at least for the vast majority of travelers/trips.

For me, personally, I would need about a 200 mile range and a fast charger in the right spot (Albany) to completely give up gasoline for all of my trips. I never expected that to happen 2 years into the rEVolution, but I see glimmers of hope that it will happen this decade. I also see signs that we are on shaky ground, and at risk of reverting back to 2002. The difference is, we cannot afford to do that again...

 

[Nubo]

IMHO, a 500 mile range car is not a vision which fits the EV paradigm. The reason people want 500 miles now is because the charging network is still infintesimal compared to what it needs to be to fulfull the paradigm (the car is charging whenever parked and quick charge as necessary). The LEAF would work for a LOT of people IF there was plentiful charging at any parking spot and fast charging along freeways and major highways. Nissan has the long term vision right, but it will take a while to get there.

It depends on which can happen sooner. 500-mile capable EVs at a reasonable cost, or fast-charging infrastructure. But the 500 mile EV is far preferable to my way of thinking. Assuming that it can become economically viable to produce. The JCESR project is aiming for such a goal.

There are inherent limitations to fast-charging that prevent it from attaining anything similar to the scale of energy replenishment provided by petrol filling stations. The sheer amount of power in a short time is a difficult problem. Imagine the power demands of a single 12-car QC "filling station" capable of filling the electric "tanks" of even a dozen LEAFs in 5 minutes. That's about 3 megawatts of power. You won't see these on every street corner!

On the other hand, a 500-mile EV could handle a day's travel and be restored overnight when it's being used for long-distance travel. For the other 95% of the time home-charging at a reasonable rate would suffice for just about anyone.

 

[GRA]

With typical degradation rates, a 500 mile BEV is really just a guaranteed 300 mile freeway BEV (assumes battery at EOL with 70% capacity, allowances for reserve, accessory use, weather etc.). I happen to think that 2 hours one way is about as long as most people are willing to drive for a day trip, 4 hours one way is about as far as most people are normally willing to drive for a 2-day weekend, although some may push beyond that.

Most of the latter group won't mind stopping for food along the way (many do so anyway), so an EOL range of say 2 1/4 hours with the allowances above plus a quick charge midway will be acceptable to many if not most people. The S-85 can just about make this now on flat ground, but I suspect the battery longevity will be inadequate if you're routinely doing such trips. Change to a chemistry with a slower degradation curve (LFP or maybe LTO currently) may be needed; alternatively it would allow a smaller pack to be used (but LFP has a lower specific energy/energy density).