I don't see Leaf sales really taking off unless there some global or national oil shock/shortage (e.g. gas going to $8+/gal, shortages like the 70s oil crises). Or, there are some massive incentives in the US or massive disincentives to buy ICEVs (almost no chance of either of these, IMHO). I think Leaf sales will stay about level w/where they are, unless it becomes much cheaper and/or has more range.
we already have massive disincentives for ICE ownership. its called buying fuel and maintaining vehicle. Word of Mouth advertising will be the main driver just like it was for the Prius.
Unlike the Prius, the LEAF does not (despite what most people think) have effective nationwide distribution as of yet. Can only think that the TN plant will change that to where even the most remote Nissan dealership will have at least one of each color to choose from
We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.
and that will be true. word of mouth in the here is much greater than say Sioux City Iowa but that is because LEAFs have been here more than a year and a half. we also have to look at the word of mouth being complicated by several buyers who were simply unaware of what they were buying despite Nissan's "best" effort to provide the information.
we all know that Nissan posted charts on estimated range and it was pretty clear that the only chance at getting 100 miles was to drive pretty slowly.
but when it gets down to it; the price is still an obstacle.
We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.
like Nissan, Uncle Sam said "ya, thats a good idea!, let me help you" and flipped them a few bucks and said "there ya go!"
there is no real governmental support here which makes it nearly impossible to establish any kind of support. the huge differences in the # of public charging facilities from one area to the next should be more than enough to tell us that.
We thought Nissan would have done the needed studies. Infact, a Leaf was supposed to have been continuously running in AZ to test the longevity of the battery. The chemistry of the battery was such that active cooling wasn't needed. But the reality has been that in warmer places, the battery has degraded - at least according to Leaf's instruments - faster than anyone had imagined.
this requires the most speculation of all. Nothing makes sense other than that Nissan rushed the vehicle to market knowing its limitations and hoped to have a sufficient battery supply and better chemistry available from TN before the issues were noticed.
that did not happen. why they miscalculated? hard to say but definitely makes the reason for that "acceptance" agreement we all signed, a bit clearer.
If I were Nissan and I had a better battery in the works and just needed more time to develop and produce it, how would I handle current customers?
well, cant say "we knew your car had problems in the heat but we needed to get the product out there to study a few processes. hope you dont mind?"
but all this has been rehashed a dozen times. Nissan's inaction on what is a grave situation in the SW is a mistake. Not providing battery purchase prices is a mistake. these are all very obvious PR nightmares and all seem to be an indication that Nissan is hiding something. something big.
I think that what we are seeing as far as cheap leases will continue into 2013 but slightly higher. What I paid for my LEAF is a price that will never be that high again. Might not be the $199 lease deal but betting it wont be over $250
This reminds me of a CD sale about 15 years ago (or more...) it was buy 2 at the regular price, get another one ½ off. at $20 a pop, i thought i was making out like a bandit.
there are two BIG things to look forward to in the next 4 weeks. the Nissan Announcement and the decision on the fiscal cliff. hope they are happy with each other