Nissan Ariya to be announced for the JDM July 15, 2020

[DaveinOlyWA]

Hmmm? I thought Nissan still had 30,000-35,000 to go before the sunset starts? Remember, you still get the full credit for as much as "nearly" 6 months after the 200,000 is hit so only need to make it to July 1st 2021 to get full credit till 2022. I don't see Nissan doing more than 20-25,000 in that time.

 

[jlv]

Nissan hasn't hit the 200K qualifying vehicles in the US AFAIK yet. https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml still shows full credit.

The saddest thing about that table is that Nissan still only has 1 row in it.

 

[danrjones]

Ok thanks.. maybe Alex was anticipating or maybe he just had his data wrong. I'd only be interested in the long range version, which people are expecting to "start"a round 50k... so with options, and probably dealer markup (see what Ford dealers have been doing!) this may just be too expensive.

When will we have an EPA rated 300 mile EV for 30k?

Any bets on who will do it first?

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

You mean after the Leaf S+?

https://m.facebook.com/groups/1780974725538319?view=permalink&id=2356204088015377&_rdr

 

[danrjones]

You mean after the Leaf S+?

https://m.facebook.com/groups/1780974725538319?view=permalink&id=2356204088015377&_rdr

If you are responding to me, the Leaf plus gets nowhere near EPA 300 miles. EPA rates it 215 or 226. And for highway, which is what matters to me, it gets even less.

So I'll clarify and say "EPA 300 mile rated car for 30k"

 

[danrjones]

Here is Car and Driver's highway ranges. YMMV but not close to 300 EPA under 30k:

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

I was jesting, though 300 city miles is very doable with the Plus if you drive kindly.

Some report with a careful foot close to 300 miles in the Kona at lower highway speeds.

 

[cwerdna]

Hope this isn't a repeat... https://insideevs.com/reviews/434648/nissan-ariya-specs-price-range/ has quite a bit of info.

 

[danrjones]

I was jesting, though 300 city miles is very doable with the Plus if you drive kindly.

Some report with a careful foot close to 300 miles in the Kona at lower highway speeds.

That's the interesting thing - I actually wish EPA would put highway range, not combined. Or put both. Almost any mainstream EV today has plenty of range for my in town driving, more than I'll ever need. Heck my 2018 Leaf lasts several days or more of in town. Plenty of range! But highway - that's where I have issues. So I'd almost rather just see highway range, as city or combined is meaningless almost now.

I'm not sure what people have been negotiating the Kona price as, but I thought it was close to 40k. Same with the Kia, which i really like.
I know the Kia is well over 40 for the higher trim. Have people been negotiating that price down?

 

[danrjones]

Hope this isn't a repeat... https://insideevs.com/reviews/434648/nissan-ariya-specs-price-range/ has quite a bit of info.

So for 87 kWh usable one could extrapolate that at 3.3 miles per kWh (about what I get on highway trips around my area with my 2018 leaf) you would get 287 highway miles.

That seems pretty high if they are targeting 300 EPA, which is combined. So either the efficiency is lower than 3.3 or maybe Nissan is being conservative, and the car will hit more than 300 EPA - more like 320 or 330?

 

[cwerdna]

https://insideevs.com/reviews/434648/nissan-ariya-specs-price-range/ has some WLTP range estimates. One can try to work backwards and guesstimate how many EPA miles that might be by looking at WLTP vs. EPA ratings of over EVs.

 

[danrjones]

https://insideevs.com/reviews/434648/nissan-ariya-specs-price-range/ has some WLTP range estimates. One can try to work backwards and guesstimate how many EPA miles that might be by looking at WLTP vs. EPA ratings of over EVs.

Using this:

https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate-conflicting-ev-range-test-cycles-epa-wltp-nedc/

That means 311 WLTP / 1.12 = 277 EPA range

But clearly that is not 300 EPA.

One wonders if the efficiency of the Ariya is not as good as the Leaf, or in fact, a lot worse.
One of the things I have noticed on some EVs - like the Ariya but also Mach E and a few others is that the auto makers love the giant hood.
Why do we need a 4-5' hood with an EV? As long as the hood is sufficient length for crash safety / crumple zones, make the hood shorter!
that gives you equal or more interior room and lightens the vehicle. I get that when you had a giant ICE you needed a big hood but not anymore...

 

[salyavin]

Speaking of which I wonder where they put the engine in the Ariya, do we get a frunk? I suspect not but thought I'd ask.

I have heard the Ariya is less efficient, reallyl it is bigger so that is to be expected, if you do eforce you can have more opportunities to use energy. It's top speed is higher and it's 0-60 time is better than the LEAF as well. So tuned more for fun than efficiency.

 

[GRA]

Found an article from May 2nd last year that put total U.S. LEAF sales at 133,000 then. If I weren't lazy I could add all of IEVS' annual sales chart numbers up.

 

[danrjones]

Not sure anyone has really mentioned it, but won't the Ariya be competing against the Kia 800v coming next year as well as one or two Hyundai 800v EVs? I think the first Hyundai is called the 45 EV.

So if those are in the same price category - 40 to 50k - which would you pick?

I have to think I'd pick one of the 800v ones. Hasn't the current Kia Niro EV and Kona EV held up well?
So one could plausibly expect good things from their next gen. Or big price drops on their current?

 

[BrockWI]

Bjorn talks about specs, some good things and some not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMChNrLt_X8

I can't image it will be $40k with the Leaf Plus being $42k, I am guessing closer to $45k and at that point it would be hard to compete with the Model Y with 100 miles more of range...

 

[cwerdna]

I can't image it will be $40k with the Leaf Plus being $42k, I am guessing closer to $45k and at that point it would be hard to compete with the Model Y with 100 miles more of range...

But tax credit on Teslas is $0 while it might still be $7500 at time of Ariya launch. If not, maybe $3750?

Tesla Model Y starts at $49,990 + $1,200 dest and doc fee = $51,190.

 

[BrockWI]

True on the tax credit, but I am not holding my breath. I believe it will show up in compliance states in the fall of 21 or winter 22. If they make a SR Y it would be less expensive. I just wish it was out now and I could go drive it to see now.

 

[cwerdna]

If they make a SR Y it would be less expensive.

SR Y canceled: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/tesla-cuts-model-y-price-and-cancels-standard-range-version.html. But you never know about Elon...

 

[cwerdna]

Ok... here are some close guesses on Nissan tax credit tally from these URLs:

https://insideevs.com/features/337511/november-update-4-automakers-closest-to-losing-federal-tax-credit/ - 126,875 - hope this is right and hope it includes Nov 2018.
https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releases/release-ff38a0c7224a41cdae89d786a02fbd82-nissan-group-reports-december-2018-and-2018-calendar-year-u-s-sales - 1,667 for Dec 2018
https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/ and https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releases/release-103b1d052fdcd89776fbcfb58d00a83f-nissan-group-reports-december-2019-and-2019-calendar-year-us-sales - 12,365 for 2019
https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releases/release-6421e197e79460fc32ead4abcf00237f-nissan-group-reports-second-quarter-2020-us-sales - 3,007 for Jan to Jun 2020

That adds up to 143,914.

If someone has a chance, maybe double check my number or add up year end sales from previous IEVs or Nissan official reports?