Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[lorenfb]

I expect a biggish drop in Q1 now that the credit taper has begun.

And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.

 

[Durandal]

I expect a biggish drop in Q1 now that the credit taper has begun.

And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.

No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.
Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI

M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.

 

[lorenfb]

I expect a biggish drop in Q1 now that the credit taper has begun.

And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.

No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.

OK, so Elon is still a little "hungry" to move his excess inventory in Q1 and reduce GP a little.
Also, maybe time to refund all the scammed deposits for a $35K M3, right?

Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI

Did you overlook this;

If battery costs continue to decline as EV production increases,

and guess again where the battery cost asymptote will be in 2-3 years.

M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.

Dream on! And if even partially correct, where will the production come from, e.g. more tents maybe?

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

I expect a biggish drop in Q1 now that the credit taper has begun.

And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.

No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.
Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI

M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.

They might be able to exceed that since GF3 (shanghai gigafactory) is targetted for a 2H '19 production start.

 

[scottf200]

Model 3 config open in China (plus see last post below):

 

[lorenfb]

And mostly because Tesla has significantly reduced the backlog of the $50K+ M3. The M3 growth will taper to what has occurred
with the MS/MX models, i.e. 2018 was a no growth year for MS/MX. Remember, Elon has stated publicly that the production cost
of the M3 is $38K, so no M3 will be delivered at less than $45K to achieve the desired 20% GP in the near term. The M3 marginal
cost will not significantly decline over the next 6-12 months, i.e. given the key most costly component - the battery.

No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.
Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI

M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.

They might be able to exceed that since GF3 (shanghai gigafactory) is targetted for a 2H '19 production start.

Relate that "target" to all the others that have been announced by Elon & Tesla, e.g. number of SC installs, MX delivery date,
a $35K M3 in late '17, GF1 significant battery production, the Tesla Semi availability, etc. The ongoing hyperbole from
Elon & Tesla doesn't end! And then there's the real issue, i.e. what's the actual long term demand for the a M3 at $45K+.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)

They dropped $2k because of lack of demand. There's no simpler explanation for it.

Does your annual cost to produce the car include the other parts, and labor costs? Those both will continue to rise.

All model 3s now have a delivery estimate of this month. The car, in the US, is already demand constrained. Right now.

The only way they increase the need to build cars is by further price drops, which their bottom line cannot withstand stateside, or they start shipping internationally asap.

 

[jlv]

At my work, a dozen new 3s were bought by employees in December. Much of that was driven by the pending drop in the Fed tax credit and the pending reduction in the MA state rebate, both effective 1/1. I originally estimated that there were a dozen holders of 3 reservations at work; we have double that number now; there are more 3s on campus than the number of Bolts and LEAFs combined.

Maybe there is a demand problem, but I don't see it (yet).

 

[Durandal]

They've not had any issues with Model S and X demand, and yet they dropped the prices on those by $2,000 as well within the US. Note that the price cuts are only within the US, international demand will be strong. Since 3/4 of the people taking delivery in December weren't even reservation holders, these are people who have been recently introduced to the Model 3. After you get to ride/drive in it, you won't want anything else. I loathe that I must wait another 6 months for mine as I get my finances in order.

 

[lorenfb]

They've not had any issues with Model S and X demand, and yet they dropped the prices on those by $2,000 as well within the US.

What? Haven't you seen the 2018 versus 2017 sales numbers, i.e. the MS/MX models had NO sales growth in the U.S. with sales
down in the ROW. Myopic views on Telsa seem to persist!

 

[RegGuheert]

It's not at all clear to me that the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF globally for the entire calendar year 2018. In fact, it remains to be seen if Tesla can deliver more Model 3s in ANY month in 2018 than Nissan delivers LEAFs during the same month.

Simply put, a large backlog is not the same thing as large sales.

I don't have the final global numbers, yet, but it's clear now that the Model 3 trounced the LEAF globally by about 50% in 2018. Here is the global tally through November 2018:

The Model 3 also helped continue the global trend of BEVs selling at twice the rate of PHEVs:

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by yet another 1%, to 67% of the total market, mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 2011!

 

[GRA]

IEVS:

Tesla Model 3 Mid Range Now Listed With More Electric Range

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-mid-range-increase-264/

264 vice 260 miles, probably no more than taking back some of the EPA range they voluntarily understated previously.

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

No M3 will be delivered at less than $45k? But I can buy one right now at $44k, assuming I want black paint.
Battery costs should drop roughly 8-10% a year, based upon previous price drops. As a result, I would expect a $1,500-2000 price drop between years to be achievable. (Weird, they dropped prices $2,000.)
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XC448c1MFdI

M3 deployment to non-US customers is starting first with the AWD versions just as it was in the US, to exhaust the premium must-have buyers, and will work downwards from there. I expect total Tesla sales worldwide to be roughly 440,000 units in 2019, 340,000 of that to be Model 3.

They might be able to exceed that since GF3 (shanghai gigafactory) is targetted for a 2H '19 production start.

Relate that "target" to all the others that have been announced by Elon & Tesla, e.g. number of SC installs, MX delivery date,
a $35K M3 in late '17, GF1 significant battery production, the Tesla Semi availability, etc. The ongoing hyperbole from
Elon & Tesla doesn't end! And then there's the real issue, i.e. what's the actual long term demand for the a M3 at $45K+.

That's why I said "might". I was just being optimistic, since they have occasionally hit a deadline. They weren't late with ALL their targets.

 

[GRA]

I think I can now describe the Model 3 as 'common' if not yet 'ubiquitous', at least where I am in the Bay Area, after seeing three out of four cars passing through a signal one after the other within ten seconds today being Model 3s, all Midnight Silver (which is by far the most popular color locally). One white, one red and one no HOV sticker.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Silver is the most rare color and not even produced anymore after Sept. Black and white are the most common colors.

 

[jlv]

What? Haven't you seen the 2018 versus 2017 sales numbers, i.e. the MS/MX models had NO sales growth in the U.S.

InsideEVs reports for the U.S.:

2017 S     27060          2018 S    25745
2017 X     21315          2018 X    26100
Combined   48375                    51845

Combined, that's a sales growth in the U.S of 7%. The X sales were way up, over 22%. The S sales are slightly down, and for the 2nd year in a row (but I suspect that's the 3 eating into those sales).

 

[scottf200]

News: https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+shanghai+factory+2019

 

[lorenfb]

Any factual basis to this?

Tesla apparently has not received so-called ‘homologation’ approval to sell cars in Europe. Safety standards in the U.S. and Europe differ, and approval indicates the cars are safe to sell in European countries. The company said it is working closely with European regulators and expects approval ‘after the holidays,’ but declined to say how long after the holidays.

And it's now "after the holidays".

 

[GRA]

Silver is the most rare color and not even produced anymore after Sept. Black and white are the most common colors.

Interesting, because here in the Bay Area based on my eyeball survey I'd say the most popular colors are Midnight Silver followed by Deep Blue. There's some blacks and a few reds, but I've seen very few whites.

 

[cwerdna]

Silver is the most rare color and not even produced anymore after Sept. Black and white are the most common colors.

Interesting, because here in the Bay Area based on my eyeball survey I'd say the most popular colors are Midnight Silver followed by Deep Blue. There's some blacks and a few reds, but I've seen very few whites.

What Tesla calls "Midnight Silver", I'd call dark grey. It's a color I don't like. It's still available and thus common.

EVDRIVER's I believe referring to "Metallic Silver" which is rare because it's discontinued (https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/11/elon-musk-tesla-eliminates-paint-colors/). That color is what I'd call silver on a car.

I know of (different) folks with each of those two colors on their 3. If I were to get a 3, my top choice would've been Metallic Silver. Midnight Silver is near the bottom for me w/black being dead last. Midnight silver is real close to a dark grey that Nissan had on Leafs and was one that I passed on when I was in the used '13 market.