Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[Durandal]

Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.

Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!

$35k Model 3 exists, just call Tesla to order one. In any case, I expect the Model 3 to continue to be the #1 selling BEV in North America for the next 3-5 years, maybe only to be eclipsed by the Model Y. Other manufacturers just won't scale up enough with their compliance cars. Local Nissan dealerships don't even try to sell the Leaf, they anti-sell the Leaf.... :roll: Tesla sold more Model 3s in Feb & March of this year than Nissan sold of Leafs ALL OF LAST year in NA.

 

[lpickup]

$35k Model 3 exists, just call Tesla to order one. In any case, I expect the Model 3 to continue to be the #1 selling BEV in North America for the next 3-5 years, maybe only to be eclipsed by the Model Y.

The Model 3 has transcended the "EV" market. It is so far ahead of the rest of the EV market, it doesn't even make sense to compare it to the rest of the EV market. It truly competes with all other vehicles in its class (gas or electric)--which, as EV enthusiasts, is what we have been working towards.

 

[mtndrew1]

I’ve just passed 20k miles on my Model 3 over the course of the last year.

Battery degradation seems to have stabilized at 306 miles from an original 310 miles of range.

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.

Tesla replaced my flat, uncomfortable rear bench seat with the new design at no charge.

I’ve driven the car from the Los Angeles area to Oregon, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona with no advance planning other than entering the destination in the nav.

It remains a brilliant car. Not without its faults but I wouldn’t hesitate to buy it again and for the first time in my life I intend to keep this car until it is no longer usable.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.

How did they add a dash cam OTA?

 

[lpickup]

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.

How did they add a dash cam OTA?

Kind of like the way they added rear seat heaters to the car OTA as well!

They used the built in front-facing cameras (and now other ones) and the USB sockets in the console. It's just a matter of updating the software to take video data from the cameras, encode it into video files and write it to the USB drive in the socket.

 

[mtndrew1]

Since I bought the car they added significant horsepower, a dash cam, navigate on autopilot, and rain sensing wipers over the air.

How did they add a dash cam OTA?

As said above they just made the autopilot cameras do double duty. At first it was only one of the front cams but now it records the two rear-facing side repeater cams too.

Just plug a properly-formatted thumb drive into one of the USB ports and the function starts automatically. Tap once on the icon to save the last ten minutes of driving otherwise it just records in a one-hour loop. I believe it also saves footage upon airbag deployment.

 

[EVDRIVER]

It records short clips just like a dash cam from all three cams now and if you turn on sentry mode it records movement and thieves. Already have some great footage on mine.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Neat.

 

[lorenfb]

SoCal has been one of Tesla's biggest domestic markets. During the latter half of 2018, the Marina Del Rey Tesla delivery center at month
end has had large numbers of M3s in the delivery lots and with customers arriving to take deliveries. This hasn't been the case for month
ends for Q1 of 2019. This situation appears to have been repeated for April. So either Tesla has better managed April deliveries over the
last few weeks, or the poor Q1 marginal delivery rate, i.e. a significant demand reduction, has continued. Some may argue that the above
is no more than anecdotal data which can't be extrapolated as indicative of an overall M3 demand decline. Yes, there's some basis to that,
but given the population (10M) of LA County, this market would still be considered a bellwether of vehicle demand. One would expect April
U.S. M3 deliveries to be at least 50% of an ideal monthly total production of 25K - 30K units, exceeding the March U.S. deliveries of 10K.

Hopefully, data from InsideEVs tomorrow will provide some insight. Lately, though, InsideEVs has not been able to provide Tesla data
until a few days after most all other EV data has been posted.

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

SoCal has been one of Tesla's biggest domestic markets. During the latter half of 2018, the Marina Del Rey Tesla delivery center at month
end has had large numbers of M3s in the delivery lots and with customers arriving to take deliveries. This hasn't been the case for month
ends for Q1 of 2019. This situation appears to have been repeated for April. So either Tesla has better managed April deliveries over the
last few weeks, or the poor Q1 marginal delivery rate, i.e. a significant demand reduction, has continued. Some may argue that the above
is no more than anecdotal data which can't be extrapolated as indicative of an overall M3 demand decline. Yes, there's some basis to that,
but given the population (10M) of LA County, this market would still be considered a bellwether of vehicle demand. One would expect April
U.S. M3 deliveries to be at least 50% of an ideal monthly total production of 25K - 30K units, exceeding the March U.S. deliveries of 10K.

Hopefully, data from InsideEVs tomorrow will provide some insight. Lately, though, InsideEVs has not been able to provide Tesla data
until a few days after most all other EV data has been posted.

The flaw in this anecdote is that marina del rey is just one distribution center amongst many in the domestic US. If Tesla is lying, and deliveries still lumpy, then deliveries should be prioritized to overseas sites. If Tesla does what they said they would, and distribute more evenly, then deliveries would be spread out fairly evenly geographically, and thus a lack of activity in marina del rey means nothing.

Relying on the shorty air force for your data and conclusions is listening to the wrong people.

 

[lorenfb]

The flaw in this anecdote is that marina del rey is just one distribution center amongst many in the domestic US. .

So you basically ignore the fact of SoCal being one of Tesla's dominate markets compared to other U.S. areas, right?

If Tesla is lying, and deliveries still lumpy, then deliveries should be prioritized to overseas sites.

In Q1, ROW (Europe & China) received 25K vehicles. There's serious doubt whether the ROW demand will be anywhere near the
domestic demand and continue like Q1.

If Tesla does what they said they would, and distribute more evenly, then deliveries would be spread out fairly evenly geographically, and thus a lack of activity in marina del rey means nothing.

That's your view. We can continue to obfuscate the demand issue to the second half of 2019, or begin to assess what most would assume
when evaluating any business' ongoing deliveries 16 weeks into a new year.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

 

[mtndrew1]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.

 

[jlv]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

This was just posted in another thread, about that WSJ article a year ago where Nissan claims it will sell one million electric cars per year over the next five years:

Regarding Nissan's own disappointments:
https://index.qz.com/1237686/nissan-wants-to-sell-one-million-electric-cars-per-year-until-2023/
Published March 27, 2018 | Photo by Reuters/Rick Wilking

"....Nissan failed to reach a similar target in the past. Together with Renault, it aimed to sell 1.5 million units of electric vehicles by 2016, but it only sold about 500,000...."

 

[EVDRIVER]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.

You mean Radio Shack multimeter.

 

[lorenfb]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.

Your links to the above and specific ECUs (modules) that Tesla has used OTAs to do a complete firmware update or just minor
coding tweaks are? It's highly doubtful you have any concept/understanding of what a firmware update to a vehicle ECU really is.

Anything other than an ad hominem to post?

 

[mtndrew1]

I’m also old enough to remember when he claimed I was a Kia employee and shill, lying about my Soul EV because everything I was saying simply must be nonsense.

In the last six weeks my car has gained 17 horsepower (with corresponding 0-60 improvements), increased its maximum sustained power draw at high speeds, and increased its maximum quick charging rate from 117 kW to 150 kW, all while parked in my garage.

Probably just infotainment. Couldn’t be ECU. I’ve only worked for two automakers so what do I know.

As said, best ignored.

 

[mtndrew1]

Model 3 sales in the US for April are estimated by InsideEVs to have nearly tripled year over year (2.68x).

S/X remain soft as orders for the new Standard Range and revised powertrains won’t be fulfilled for a few more weeks.

https://insideevs.com/news/347137/tesla-model-3-s-x-sales-april/amp/

 

[lorenfb]

In the last six weeks my car has gained 17 horsepower (with corresponding 0-60 improvements), increased its maximum sustained power draw at high speeds, and increased its maximum quick charging rate from 117 kW to 150 kW, all while parked in my garage.

Probably just infotainment. Couldn’t be ECU. I’ve only worked for two automakers so what do I know.

As said, best ignored.

Both are simple coding changes to the flash memory (stores basic firmware parameters) of the motor controller (ECU) and the BMS ECU
and NOT what's considered a firmware ECU update.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?

I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.

Your links to the above and specific ECUs (modules) that Tesla has used OTAs to do a complete firmware update or just minor
coding tweaks are? It's highly doubtful you have any concept/understanding of what a firmware update to a vehicle ECU really is.

Anything other than an ad hominem to post?

'
They can flash the firmware at the component level, not just coding tweaks. Stop with your old OEM part supplier mentality and constant Tesla trolling which is 95% the reason you come to this site.