Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[webeleafowners]

You know as well as I do that the LEAF would be just fine. I do it now with my 107 mile LEAF. Some people make random generalizations on having the ability to drive for 5 hours at a time. Well, they can have it. Even if I had a 1000 mile car, I would still be stopping VERY frequently.

It's not the driving, it is the recharging. Without the Tesla Superchargers travel for longer distances can be very challenging. Where you are there may be a good DCFC network for your trips in your Leaf, but how about driving to Denver, or San Diego, or Dallas?

On July 4 we completed a 16-day, 7,000 mile, coast to coast trip. San Diego to IN, then GA and FL before returning to San Diego. Yes, it could be done with our Leaf, but it would have taken many more weeks, with 30 minutes of DCFC for each hour of driving if they were available, much longer charging if only L-2 were available. With a 200+ range leaf just double the times. Even if all the charging were available, the cost would be more than purchasing gas for our ICE. Another issue would be the heat of the battery with constant driving and recharging. I do not believe the Leaf, or even the other EV's on the market could withstand constant use for 24, 36, or 48 hours. Even if they could, no one else has a Charging network that is practical for that kind of cross country travel. Maybe in selected regional travel with DCFC in a network that you can subscribe to it will work. But only there. The Tesla will work driving almost anywhere in the country, and by the end of 2018 with the tripling of superchargers available there will be almost nowhere in this country you can not go in a Tesla.

Yes without a doubt the Supercharger network is great for long distance travel.

You mention "this country". Curious where you are.

On edit. Whoops, just noticed you mentioned San Diego so you are probably an American. We have a property in Palm Springs so am familiar with some of the charge corridors in that part of your country. But not because of our leaf though. We trailer our Smart ED convertible to Palm Springs and have made a few trips to hunting beach etc. Unfortunately the smart had no fast charge so we always have a couple hour stop in a shopping area in Moreno Valley area. Was hoping the 2018 smart ED would have fast charge but no luck. Meh. Still a fun little car.

Cheers.

 

[lpickup]

I have a hypothetical question for current LEAF owners who have a Tesla 3 on order and now are having second thoughts about it because of the actual pricing, content, and delivery schedule of that car.

Would you consider a 2018 LEAF instead of the Tesla 3 if Nissan offered to double your deposit toward a purchase/lease of a 2018 LEAF if you canceled your Tesla order?

Great question!

I am a bit disappointed in the Model 3 pricing and feature breakdown. I was really hoping the "longer range" option would come in at $42K for about 280 miles of range. 310 seems a bit overkill and it's a bit hard to justify the additional $2K in light of the fact that it will cost an additional $1K for the color I want and the glass roof option which I did want looks like it will cost $5K (even though I get a lot of other features I don't want/need). There are also some other minor things I don't like about what I've seen including what appears to be a Bluetooth/key card entry system. I'm hoping they eventually offer other options, but seriously, it's not like my key fob is the last key I am carrying. I am still going to have to carry a key ring around, so it's not a big deal to me to get rid of a key fob.

So, has that changed my mind enough to consider the LEAF 2.0? Almost certainly not. For two simple reasons:

1) The bare minimum range I am looking for is 250. This is what I consider the bare minimum to support long distance trips. And yes, I realize that 99% of the time I certainly don't need that range. But my goal here is to replace our Volt (which comes off lease shortly) that we currently use for our long distance trips. We did try using loaner vehicles / renting before we got the Volt and we had 2 LEAFs. And while that did work for us and was more or less a reasonable cost, it was somewhat inconvenient and my wife hated it. We would need to both go pick up the car the day before (since we were going to leave early in the morning) and since we got home late at night, we would have to both go the day after and return it. And if we were getting back on a Sunday night, this would interfere with work, etc. So my wife hated that option and we are really trying to get completely off gas by getting a second BEV truly capable of long distance trips. And yes, I realize the ROI just isn't there, but convenience and spousal happiness can't be measured in dollars.

2) Even if by some miracle LEAF 2.0 was 250+ miles, like I said in my earlier post, the CHAdeMO charging network simply isn't there to support long distance travel, particularly on the exact route I need to use it on.

Now...if LEAF 2.0 ends up being 250+ miles AND Nissan is the mystery automaker that Tesla is working with on Supercharger access and LEAF 2.0 could use Superchargers (even if it were at "considerable" expense), AND I could be shown that Nissan has done something about managing battery temps when doing multiple fast chargers in a row, then yes, I would consider LEAF 2.0 over the Model 3. But it would literally take all 3 of those things, and I think the chances of that happening would be quite low.

 

[edatoakrun]

TMC thread started this AM RE the mystery of the missing model 3 Monroney sticker:

Model 3 Energy Consumption Rate, Battery Size, and SC Charge Rates

Today at 6:42 AM

These three numbers are still outstanding information, although since we know the range the consumption rate and battery size are related.

I'm still unsure of the Wh/mile for either Model 3 battery size and I suppose we will have to wait for the Monroney sticker to be sure of the values, but in the meantime please share all reasonable calculations based on Tesla information. Not guesses, please...

Today at 10:06 AM

...Tesla shouldn't be able to sell the car without a window sticker and the window sticker would definitely show the EPA rated range. Therefore it is puzzling why Tesla's website doesn't show this number...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-energy-consumption-rate-battery-size-and-sc-charge-rates.95049/

So far, not much beyond guesswork has been posted (IMO) but after MS information is released by TSLA, it will likely show up there.

Another thread RE option availability and starting price for this year's model 3 deliveries:

...They just told me that the only cars that will probably be delivered this year will be the 310 battery all of which will be equipped with the Premium upgrade package. So they will start at $50,200 (including the mandatory delivery charge of $1200, even if you pick it up at the factory)...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-options-pricing.94876/page-10

 

[dgpcolorado]

Question for dgpcolorado. One of the points mentioned in one of the articles, I think the Motor Trend one, was that the rear seats in the Model 3 do fold 60/40, as well as the trunk opening being enlarged, and that a bike would fit in the back (and so presumably a person could also lie down). While I still prefer a hatchback/wagon/CUV body design, folding rear seats and the larger trunk opening do provide a lot more versatility and utility, and I was wondering if that had changed your attitude (previously negative IIRR) towards the Model 3? I'd prefer a Model Y, but it would be absolutely off my list if it has Falcon Wing Doors, if no one can get Elon to change his mind on that.

I would expect that the 3 is much too small to sleep in as I've done with my S (stretched out diagonally) but even with the S, the low roof makes me prefer the space of my tent, where I can sit up easily. The 3 is just too small to even consider sleeping in it — it would be like trying to sleep in a LEAF.

I'm pretty sure I'd have to take the seat off my mountain bike to fit it in the 3 — long legs means a big frame and long seat post — and even then it would be awkward to lift in because the bike is rather heavy. I'd be willing to do that because I don't transport my bicycle in a car all that often, it is primarily used for rugged local commuting. I have about 15k miles on my mountain bike and recently had it completely rebuilt — a lot of parts were just worn out — so I'm hoping that I will get another 15k miles out of it. [With my former road bike — I wore out several — I did 43,000 miles commuting before moving to the mountains: every weekday, sun, rain, or snow.]

While it would be nice to have a nifty new car, I like the S better than the 3 in every way except cost. I'm leaning toward another CPO S with a larger battery for faster Supercharging. But the 3 certainly is a capable car and I think that $35k for 220 miles of range and $44k for 310 miles of range is a bargain. The only option, besides the larger battery, that I would consider would be the color, since I hate black cars. I'm curious to see what happens to CPO prices for the S. In recent days there have been CPO cars with the full 4 year/50k mile warranty for as little as $35k, although they don't last long.

Don't have to decide for more than a year. Since I can't use the federal tax credit, due to my tiny income, with a 3 purchase I would push it back at least a year to allow others to claim the credit. However, the $5k Colorado rebate on new EVs makes the 3 more tempting. I'll be interested to see how things shake out over the next year. Although I bought my S sight unseen — had never even sat in one — I'll certainly get a chance to take a look at the 3 next year when I'm passing though a big city.

 

[webb14leafs]

I have a hypothetical question for current LEAF owners who have a Tesla 3 on order and now are having second thoughts about it because of the actual pricing, content, and delivery schedule of that car.

Would you consider a 2018 LEAF instead of the Tesla 3 if Nissan offered to double your deposit toward a purchase/lease of a 2018 LEAF if you canceled your Tesla order?

Great question!

I am a bit disappointed in the Model 3 pricing and feature breakdown. I was really hoping the "longer range" option would come in at $42K for about 280 miles of range. 310 seems a bit overkill and it's a bit hard to justify the additional $2K in light of the fact that it will cost an additional $1K for the color I want and the glass roof option which I did want looks like it will cost $5K (even though I get a lot of other features I don't want/need). There are also some other minor things I don't like about what I've seen including what appears to be a Bluetooth/key card entry system. I'm hoping they eventually offer other options, but seriously, it's not like my key fob is the last key I am carrying. I am still going to have to carry a key ring around, so it's not a big deal to me to get rid of a key fob.

So, has that changed my mind enough to consider the LEAF 2.0? Almost certainly not. For two simple reasons:

1) The bare minimum range I am looking for is 250. This is what I consider the bare minimum to support long distance trips. And yes, I realize that 99% of the time I certainly don't need that range. But my goal here is to replace our Volt (which comes off lease shortly) that we currently use for our long distance trips. We did try using loaner vehicles / renting before we got the Volt and we had 2 LEAFs. And while that did work for us and was more or less a reasonable cost, it was somewhat inconvenient and my wife hated it. We would need to both go pick up the car the day before (since we were going to leave early in the morning) and since we got home late at night, we would have to both go the day after and return it. And if we were getting back on a Sunday night, this would interfere with work, etc. So my wife hated that option and we are really trying to get completely off gas by getting a second BEV truly capable of long distance trips. And yes, I realize the ROI just isn't there, but convenience and spousal happiness can't be measured in dollars.

2) Even if by some miracle LEAF 2.0 was 250+ miles, like I said in my earlier post, the CHAdeMO charging network simply isn't there to support long distance travel, particularly on the exact route I need to use it on.

Now...if LEAF 2.0 ends up being 250+ miles AND Nissan is the mystery automaker that Tesla is working with on Supercharger access and LEAF 2.0 could use Superchargers (even if it were at "considerable" expense), AND I could be shown that Nissan has done something about managing battery temps when doing multiple fast chargers in a row, then yes, I would consider LEAF 2.0 over the Model 3. But it would literally take all 3 of those things, and I think the chances of that happening would be quite low.

What do you think an estimated range of 250 miles actually equals on the freeway? 200?

Also, have you checked out the supercharger network to see how much range you really need. 200 miles seems like the magic number for getting almost anywhere with Tesla's network. I've only checked it out for Florida, though. Don't know what it's like in your neck of the woods.

 

[lpickup]

What do you think an estimated range of 250 miles actually equals on the freeway? 200?

Maybe closer to 220, but 200 might not be a bad assumption to account for weather variations, additional weight, battery degradation...

Also, have you checked out the supercharger network to see how much range you really need. 200 miles seems like the magic number for getting almost anywhere with Tesla's network. I've only checked it out for Florida, though. Don't know what it's like in your neck of the woods.

I have definitely checked out the network on the specific route I need to go on each year. The first leg is especially difficult. 283 miles. And what makes it even more difficult is that I can always start with a full battery on outbound direction, but inbound is trickier not being able to rely on starting it with 100% charge.

Now I'm sure people are thinking that I must live in a remote area, or that the tripling of SC sites by the end of 2018 will probably help. Not so. The SC spacing is near ideal if you are talking strictly about interstates. But from my home (in North Carolina), to go north through eventually to western & northern NY, you can either use I-85 to I-95 and then battle the crazy traffic there (not a pleasant experience), or for a "penalty" of about 15 minutes (which given the possibility of a jam on I-95 could actually work out to be less time), you can take US-29 (which for portions is a limited access highway, but NOT an interstate and therefore NOT likely to get a SC) through south-central VA to get to I-81 in Staunton, VA. Once you get on I-81 you have to go all the way north to Strasburg, VA to hit that first SC site.

Now there are a few other options besides taking the eastern I-95 route. One is to divert to the future SC in Charlottesville, VA. This is still 200 miles (so still tight), but also adds 30 miles to the trip. Another option is to get to I-81 further south to the Lexington, VA SC. This is 183 miles and actually looks good on paper, but it requires driving across the Appalachian mountains on a very windy pass, which if you weren't on a 15 hour trip might be kind of fun, but actually slows you down significantly. The third option is to use non-SC chargers. Unfortunately this area of VA is completely devoid of fast chargers. There is 1 destination charger and I am lobbying with a brewpub we typically stop at for dinner on the way home to install one so that would help bridge the gap. There are also a few CHAdeMO stations on I-81 south of Strasburg which could be used as well.

But yes, it's actually a pretty poor stretch when it comes to charging infrastructure, and I don't see it getting better any time soon because even though US-29 is a major thoroughfare through that area, it's not an interstate and is unlikely to garner attention from Tesla or any other fast charger networks. It's going to be challenging enough with a 310 mile Model 3. A 250 mile vehicle would be an enormous challenge, if not downright impossible in this section.

 

[webb14leafs]

What do you think an estimated range of 250 miles actually equals on the freeway? 200?

Maybe closer to 220, but 200 might not be a bad assumption to account for weather variations, additional weight, battery degradation...

Also, have you checked out the supercharger network to see how much range you really need. 200 miles seems like the magic number for getting almost anywhere with Tesla's network. I've only checked it out for Florida, though. Don't know what it's like in your neck of the woods.

I have definitely checked out the network on the specific route I need to go on each year. The first leg is especially difficult. 283 miles. And what makes it even more difficult is that I can always start with a full battery on outbound direction, but inbound is trickier not being able to rely on starting it with 100% charge.

Now I'm sure people are thinking that I must live in a remote area, or that the tripling of SC sites by the end of 2018 will probably help. Not so. The SC spacing is near ideal if you are talking strictly about interstates. But from my home (in North Carolina), to go north through eventually to western & northern NY, you can either use I-85 to I-95 and then battle the crazy traffic there (not a pleasant experience), or for a "penalty" of about 15 minutes (which given the possibility of a jam on I-95 could actually work out to be less time), you can take US-29 (which for portions is a limited access highway, but NOT an interstate and therefore NOT likely to get a SC) through south-central VA to get to I-81 in Staunton, VA. Once you get on I-81 you have to go all the way north to Strasburg, VA to hit that first SC site.

Now there are a few other options besides taking the eastern I-95 route. One is to divert to the future SC in Charlottesville, VA. This is still 200 miles (so still tight), but also adds 30 miles to the trip. Another option is to get to I-81 further south to the Lexington, VA SC. This is 183 miles and actually looks good on paper, but it requires driving across the Appalachian mountains on a very windy pass, which if you weren't on a 15 hour trip might be kind of fun, but actually slows you down significantly. The third option is to use non-SC chargers. Unfortunately this area of VA is completely devoid of fast chargers. There is 1 destination charger and I am lobbying with a brewpub we typically stop at for dinner on the way home to install one so that would help bridge the gap. There are also a few CHAdeMO stations on I-81 south of Strasburg which could be used as well.

But yes, it's actually a pretty poor stretch when it comes to charging infrastructure, and I don't see it getting better any time soon because even though US-29 is a major thoroughfare through that area, it's not an interstate and is unlikely to garner attention from Tesla or any other fast charger networks. It's going to be challenging enough with a 310 mile Model 3. A 250 mile vehicle would be an enormous challenge, if not downright impossible in this section.

That's a bummer. I've done similar route mapping with my Leaf, and I hate when I come to the conclusion that I just "can't get there from here."

 

[edatoakrun]

Question for dgpcolorado. One of the points mentioned in one of the articles, I think the Motor Trend one, was that the rear seats in the Model 3 do fold 60/40, as well as the trunk opening being enlarged, and that a bike would fit in the back (and so presumably a person could also lie down)...

I would expect that the 3 is much too small to sleep in as I've done with my S (stretched out diagonally) but even with the S, the low roof makes me prefer the space of my tent, where I can sit up easily. The 3 is just too small to even consider sleeping in it...

Driving Tesla’s Model 3 Changes Everything

...With the new Model 3, there’s great news for those Tesla campers and others who like to haul long cargo. The seats of the Model 3 fold completely flat, and with the front seats in their most forward position, the back bed measures an impressive 6 feet 9 inches long (206 cm). This is a car that’s dying to be slept in...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/driving-tesla-s-model-3-changes-everything

 

[Graffi]

For you, and others in this same type of situation, If you have a route that you need, or would very much like, to take then another option to look at is scout places you would like to stop at for a couple of hours for anyone that would be willing to give access to a 240v/50a 14-50 outlet. With that you could get 40a or 9.6kwh each hour. If your speed is limited to 50 mph to 55 mph then you should be able to get a lot more out of the 220 mile Tesla Model 3.

Otherwise try to time your driving through bad traffic areas to times when the traffic is not heavy. I know that going north from San Diego I need to plan a time I can get through Los Angeles without blocked freeways. A two hour drive could easily turn into an 8 hour drive. The good news is that with an EV your efficiency will actually get better in the slow freeway driving.

For all the Tesla Model 3 doubters out there or those who are finding excuses to claim you wish to now go to some other EV lets try an exercise. Plan your long distance route, lets say greater than 600 miles each way. First plan it using the standard Model 3, then the long range Model 3, then try to get there in any alternative EV you are thinking about. After you are done post the results here. It would be interesting to see the results.

If you are not a Tesla owner that has used https://www.evtripplanner.com/ then give it a try. I use it to plan all my multi-supercharger trips. For the Standard Model 3 I used the Model S 60, for long range I used Model S 90. For the other EV's you can use the Leaf option without Superchargers. You can also use other EV trip planning tools.

 

[edatoakrun]

TSLA is making refunds currently , but the story below reports long delays in some cases:

...nothing but a zero risk deposit to get in line to make that decision, nothing more.

Oh Grasshopper, have you checked tne internet lately regarding that decision?

CANCELING YOUR MODEL 3 DEPOSIT? DON'T COUNT ON A TIMELY REFUND

...Tesla makes it easy to ask for your money back; the company’s website says deposit holders can cancel at any time. Per the company's Model 3 Reservation FAQ, “Refunds can take up to three weeks depending on your country of delivery.”
At least that's how it's supposed to work...

https://www.wired.com/story/canceling-your-model-3-deposit-dont-count-on-a-timely-refund/

But the fact that it is returning 3 (and other) deposits now does not mean TSLA deposits are zero risk .

On Wednesday TSLA reports quarterly earnings, and we will have a better idea of how quickly its cash position is deteriorating.

Anyone considering placing a deposit for any BEV with TSLA should consider how those financials would look without the over- $half-billion in interest-free-cash TSLA has to play with, as a result of customer deposits.

 

[scottf200]

Tesla Model 3 vs BMW 3 Series: how pricing and options compare
https://electrek.co/2017/07/31/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-3-series/

 

[abasile]

"Dual motor all wheel drive" - Choice of 220 or 310 mile range - Aug.-Oct. 2018

I just re-checked my Tesla account, and my estimate for AWD delivery is now showing as "Jun. - Aug. 2018", moved up by two months. Of course, such time estimates need to be taken with a big grain of salt. Still, being able to take delivery in 2Q or 3Q 2018 would significantly increase our chances of being able to take the full $7500 federal tax credit. On the Tesla site, I went ahead and selected AWD (instead of "first production") as my preference.

I wonder which manufacturer is going to be next after Tesla to make a serious effort at producing BEVs with AWD...

 

[edatoakrun]

...I wonder which manufacturer is going to be next after Tesla to make a serious effort at producing BEVs with AWD...

Actually, Audi and Jaguar, both with AWD standard, may beat the AWD Tesla 3 to the market.

Both will probably cost more than a comparably-equipped 3, but will have larger battery packs than the 3 and will probably still be priced well below Tesla X territory.

 

[GRA]

Question for dgpcolorado. One of the points mentioned in one of the articles, I think the Motor Trend one, was that the rear seats in the Model 3 do fold 60/40, as well as the trunk opening being enlarged, and that a bike would fit in the back (and so presumably a person could also lie down). While I still prefer a hatchback/wagon/CUV body design, folding rear seats and the larger trunk opening do provide a lot more versatility and utility, and I was wondering if that had changed your attitude (previously negative IIRR) towards the Model 3? <snip>

I would expect that the 3 is much too small to sleep in as I've done with my S (stretched out diagonally) but even with the S, the low roof makes me prefer the space of my tent, where I can sit up easily. The 3 is just too small to even consider sleeping in it — it would be like trying to sleep in a LEAF.

Don't know your height (I'm 6'0") but I sleep lying straight out in my Forester (175" long, vice the Model 3's 184.8") with no problem. In my previous Subaru Wagon ('88) I had to sleep diagonally, but that was because the rear seat cushion had to be flipped forward before you folded the seat backs to get a flat load floor. In the Forester, only the seat backs can be folded, but the floor only has a slight but acceptable angle to it starting at the base of the rear seats, which is flush with the cargo area floor. I slide the front seats all the way forward and tilt them ditto, and my head fits between the seats and rests on the center armrest (ordered the optional taller armrest so that it was level with the height of the folded rear seat backs). I also flip the rear head rests around and extend them so they provide some back support in the gap between the top of the rear seats and the back of the front seats, then lay a Thermarest mattress on top of everything. It's far more comfortable than sleeping diagonally, as I can stretch out, and have no trouble sitting up - I can even use the front seat backs as a back rest if I wish. I'd have to see how much height there is in the back of a Model 3 to see if that works. Sleeping diagonally on any kind of slope, I always seemed to wake up with a sore leg muscle from trying to hold myself in position.

I also tested this method in the LEAF and could do the same thing, as was also the case with the e-Golf, Ionic, and Volt 2. The only problems are when there's a step up from the rear load floor to the level of the back of the folded rear seats, or a too steep angle for the folded rear seat backs. A step up can be dealt with by one or more foam boards to raise the level of the rear load floor, at a cost in cargo (and leg) volume.

[Edit] Read this in a Bloomberg review:

Ready for Camper Mode

Last year I wrote about a subculture of Tesla drivers who go camping in the back of their cars. It sounds crazy at first, but the car’s massive battery can maintain perfectly controlled climate all night while only losing about 7 percent of the car’s range. With the glass canopy overhead and the view of the stars, it’s a great way to enjoy national parks without the bother of a campsite. I tried it myself and loved it.

With the new Model 3, there’s great news for those Tesla campers and others who like to haul long cargo. The seats of the Model 3 fold completely flat, and with the front seats in their most forward position, the back bed measures an impressive 6 feet 9 inches long (206 cm). This is a car that’s dying to be slept in.

There's also a profile diagram showing the sleeping space. See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/driving-tesla-s-model-3-changes-everything

Headroom while sitting up looks to be limited, but I'd have to try it to be sure.

I'm pretty sure I'd have to take the seat off my mountain bike to fit it in the 3 — long legs means a big frame and long seat post — and even then it would be awkward to lift in because the bike is rather heavy. I'd be willing to do that because I don't transport my bicycle in a car all that often, it is primarily used for rugged local commuting. I have about 15k miles on my mountain bike and recently had it completely rebuilt — a lot of parts were just worn out — so I'm hoping that I will get another 15k miles out of it. [With my former road bike — I wore out several — I did 43,000 miles commuting before moving to the mountains: every weekday, sun, rain, or snow.]

I only carry my bike in the car occasionally, but if it's just the one that's a lot easier and less drag than putting on my roof rack - I didn't want a trailer hitch as I'd be hauling useless weight around almost all the time. My hybrid fits in the Forester just fine, rear wheel first, but I have to turn the handlebars so the front wheel is nearly vertical to shorten the overall length. There's enough vertical clearance at the rear gate to do that, but it probably wouldn't work in the Model 3's trunk - the extra 9.8" of length might make all the difference. I've got a 34" inseam so I hear you about big frames and long seat posts. I've got a QR on the latter, but don't need to use it to make it fit in the car. [Edit] The Bloomberg article has this to say:

For anyone hoping to use the Model 3 as their sole means of transportation, the biggest hang-up might be the trunk opening.

I brought a tape measure with me, and the opening measured 18.5 inches tall and 42 inches at its widest. That’s pretty standard for a small sedan, which is to say, not great. Most Americans have grown accustomed to larger SUVs and crossovers, and the utilitarian hatchback has been embraced by Europeans for ages.

So, wrestling a bike in would be a hassle.

While it would be nice to have a nifty new car, I like the S better than the 3 in every way except cost. I'm leaning toward another CPO S with a larger battery for faster Supercharging. But the 3 certainly is a capable car and I think that $35k for 220 miles of range and $44k for 310 miles of range is a bargain. The only option, besides the larger battery, that I would consider would be the color, since I hate black cars. I'm curious to see what happens to CPO prices for the S. In recent days there have been CPO cars with the full 4 year/50k mile warranty for as little as $35k, although they don't last long.

$44k for 310 miles (more like 210 no worries assuming 90% charge, 15% reserve, allowances for HVAC/weather) is still too expensive for me, but a lot closer to acceptable. I'd want something other than black as well, and maybe A/P, although paying $5k primarily for adaptive CC is ridiculous. Hopefully, once the car gets into full production Tesla will unbundle some of the options - IMO safety equipment should never require buying luxury options.

I'm surprised that you wouldn't consider A/P mandatory, given the likely future vision issues you've mentioned.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...Otherwise try to time your driving through bad traffic areas to times when the traffic is not heavy. I know that going north from San Diego I need to plan a time I can get through Los Angeles without blocked freeways. A two hour drive could easily turn into an 8 hour drive...

Is there a time you can cross LA without blocked freeways? 2 AM? I'm curious since I have a friend in Culver City I'd like to visit but I dread the thought of LA traffic, even though I learned to drive in LA, albeit eons ago before traffic gridlock was the norm.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...$44k for 310 miles (more like 210 no worries assuming 90% charge, 15% reserve, allowances for HVAC/weather)...

Just so.

is still too expensive for me, but a lot closer to acceptable. I'd want something other than black as well, and maybe A/P, although paying $5k primarily for adaptive CC is ridiculous. Hopefully, once the car gets into full production Tesla will unbundle some of the options - IMO safety equipment should never require buying luxury options.

I'm surprised that you wouldn't consider A/P mandatory, given the likely future vision issues you've mentioned.

AP would be useless where I live (and FSD here? ridiculous). I could use it on the road trips, I suppose, but I happen to like driving the Tesla, it is fun. For an extra $5k? Forget it. My eyesight seems to have stabilized, for now, at 20/25 in both eyes, so not great but adequate for safe driving. The stars aren't as clear as they used to be, however...

Your concerns about cost of the long range Model 3 remind me to suggest waiting a couple of years and then you can pick up a loaded CPO at a bargain price (because some owners will trade up to the latest and greatest). That's an option for those who find it too expensive for their liking. I predict that Tesla will enable AP on all CPOs, so that won't be a choice.

As for camping, I think that you will find the roof of the 3 very low compared to your Forester, even if you can fit lengthwise in such a small car. Diagonal in the S worked fine — I put a folded bedspread in the back to level my air mattress and that made for a flat surface, so no tendency to slide one way or another. Just didn't like the low ceiling — it's an aero sedan not an SUV! But I can do it if I have to.

 

[jlv]

I just re-checked my Tesla account, and my estimate for AWD delivery is now showing as "Jun. - Aug. 2018", moved up by two months. Of course, such time estimates need to be taken with a big grain of salt. Still, being able to take delivery in 2Q or 3Q 2018 would significantly increase our chances of being able to take the full $7500 federal tax credit.

The latest updates at the Model 3 delivery estimator now guess that deliveries past Q2 are not going to get the full credit. This is based upon the updated delivery numbers and most of the M3 production going to the US.

Pessimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019

Optimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

My account is also showing Jun - Aug 2018 for an AWD, and these things combined is definitely making me question waiting on AWD.

 

[jlv]

AP would be useless where I live (and FSD here? ridiculous)

AP2 works remarkably well on side roads here - at those that are lined.

 

[lpickup]

The latest updates at the Model 3 delivery estimator now guess that deliveries past Q2 are not going to get the full credit. This is based upon the updated delivery numbers and most of the M3 production going to the US.

That's pretty much my thought as well, or at least it was.

I may revise that thinking.

Even with Elon's optimistic tweet of 20K units per month in Dec '17, they were still not going to hit 20K in 4Q17, but they were probably close enough that it would make sense to forge ahead and cross 200K in the first few weeks of January.

Now the production 'S' curve Elon showed at the handover event showed them hitting 5K/week only in the final week of December. I realize this is not a real actual chart, but I think the story it tells is that probably best case they will hit the 5K/week run rate at the very end of December...this probably means more like 10K cars in December max, and with delivery lag we're probably only talking 7500 or so actual deliveries in December.

So that may make me rethink what Tesla plans to do. Now it still means they could potentially hit car #200K in early February, but the question is does Elon "do the right thing" and postpone shipments of Model 3 for 2 whole months (and divert Model S and X deliveries abroad) to hit #200K on April 1. Two months is a long time and customers would be furious for additional delay, but if the ramp up does not go quite as expected and we look at another 2-3 week lag, well then, we only have about a 6 week delay, and that might be somewhat more palatable a situation to hold back deliveries. And of course AWD customers would be completely thrilled, so there might be a case to be made for this approach.

 

[GRA]

<snip>
Your concerns about cost of the long range Model 3 remind me to suggest waiting a couple of years and then you can pick up a loaded CPO at a bargain price (because some owners will trade up to the latest and greatest). That's an option for those who find it too expensive for their liking. I predict that Tesla will enable AP on all CPOs, so that won't be a choice.

I always wait anyway, so they can work out the bugs.

As for camping, I think that you will find the roof of the 3 very low compared to your Forester, even if you can fit lengthwise in such a small car.

I updated my post above to include the Model 3's flat floor length data (6'9" to the back of the front seats), so length wouldn't be an issue. OTOH, its height is 8.2" less than the Forester, so it could indeed be tough to sit up in, depending on how low the seats are. Probably tough/impossible to sit up straight.