Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[garsh]

most ICE vehicles do not carry enough fuel to go 400 miles or do not get the MPG to get that far

My gas-guzzling Honda Odyssey will easily get 400 miles on a single tank with highway driving. I just took a 300-mile (one-way) trip in my van. I made one stop for a bathroom break (no gas). It took 10 minutes, and we were on the road again. I made a 600-mile trip last summer. We did stop for lunch that time. If there was a supercharger next to a restaurant we liked, it may have worked out for us, but we don't yet have superchargers on every corner, do we? And the supercharger *has* to be within walking distance of your restaurant.

I know you *want* EVs to become mainstream, but you're kidding yourself if you think a 300-mile range with 30-40 minute break to refuel is going to satisfy the majority of people. If someone really *wants* an EV to work for them, then they'll make it work (yes, I'm in that camp - I just couldn't afford a Tesla). But the majority of people are going to see the (much) higher price tag and the long refueling times, and decide that it's not for them.

Tesla's doing great work to make EVs acceptable to more and more people. They're pushing the technology farther than anybody else. And I hope they succeed. But even with the Model III, they're not yet making a car for everybody.

 

[apvbguy]

most ICE vehicles do not carry enough fuel to go 400 miles or do not get the MPG to get that far

My gas-guzzling Honda Odyssey will easily get 400 miles on a single tank with highway driving. I just took a 300-mile (one-way) trip in my van. I made one stop for a bathroom break (no gas). It took 10 minutes, and we were on the road again. I made a 600-mile trip last summer. We did stop for lunch that time. If there was a supercharger next to a restaurant we liked, it may have worked out for us, but we don't yet have superchargers on every corner, do we? And the supercharger *has* to be within walking distance of your restaurant.

I know you *want* EVs to become mainstream, but you're kidding yourself if you think a 300-mile range with 30-40 minute break to refuel is going to satisfy the majority of people. If someone really *wants* an EV to work for them, then they'll make it work (yes, I'm in that camp - I just couldn't afford a Tesla). But the majority of people are going to see the (much) higher price tag and the long refueling times, and decide that it's not for them.

Tesla's doing great work to make EVs acceptable to more and more people. They're pushing the technology farther than anybody else. And I hope they succeed. But even with the Model III, they're not yet making a car for everybody.

the operative word is most, thanks for the report on YOUR car

 

[Zythryn]

...

I know you *want* EVs to become mainstream, but you're kidding yourself if you think a 300-mile range with 30-40 minute break to refuel is going to satisfy the majority of people. If someone really *wants* an EV to work for them, then they'll make it work (yes, I'm in that camp - I just couldn't afford a Tesla). But the majority of people are going to see the (much) higher price tag and the long refueling times, and decide that it's not for them.
...

I think you are projecting your personal wants and desires onto the rest of the world.
Most people don't make trips like that very often at all.
You apparently have a specific requirement for which restaurant you stop at. When we take our vacations, we really don't care. I am not sure where most people fall in there.

For families with two cars, one EV and one trip vehicle works great.
Even if I slow charge, the lack of convenience on long trips is well worth the added convenience of starting every day with a 'full tank' every day. If that isn't the case, renting, or borrowing a car is also an option.

I am not saying this works for everyone, or for you. I do believe this would work well for the majority of people.

 

[mkjayakumar]

Folks who want to drive 600 miles with only a 10 min break, I call that edge cases or weirdos

90% of folks want to take a 30 to 45 min break if they are driving that far.

 

[garsh]

I do believe this would work well for the majority of people.

I think you are projecting your personal wants and desires onto the rest of the world.

Seriously.

I own a Leaf. I am willing - and do - make the changes needed to make the car work for me. But I am often reminded that most other people just want a car, and won't be willing to make those changes to accommodate today's EV. Many people go on a road trip once a year - I'm not special in this regard. Many people *are* a bit more particular about what restaurant they eat at on a trip.

Elon Musk realizes all of this. He's trying as best he can to create an EV that can be a useful vehicle for as many people as possible. Putting free superchargers across the continent is a *genius* move. But there's a long way to go. The Model III will be acceptable to even more people, but it's not going to be a car that the majority of people will find acceptable.

 

[Nubo]

My underlying point is this: EVs will be niche vehicles as long as it takes more than 5 minutes to "refuel".

Today they work great local around-the-town cars. E.g., for commuter cars, where you go from home to work and then work to home, and have long enough times on each end to recharge. In fact, I'm doing that with my Leaf loving every moment of the way. I love that I'm not pumping out toxic exhaust, the performance of the car, and that I'm paying for fossil fuels anymore.

IMHO, the need for 20-30 minute recharges for any decent range will be a major disincentive to eliminating ICE. As I said, I can't imagine every taking a 400 mile trip in a car that required me to take multiple breaks. Maybe I'm in the 'niche', but my niche includes nearly everyone I know. This is why I think there is a need for some form of fast-refueling EV, and that's what I hope to be able to buy for my next EV.

I don't think it's as grim as you imagine. If one steps back and views the larger picture -- how much time and hassle is involved with the vehicle over the course of time? With an EV you are avoiding that on an ongoing basis.

Our typical longer trip is from the S.F. area to Orange County (Southern California). In the gasoline car, we often stop twice on the way down. We could make it by stopping only once, but prefer a chance to relax, stretch our legs, bathroom break, and get rid of the "road buzz". One of the stops will usually involve a meal.

We hope to make the same trip in a Model X. I anticipate 2 charging stops will do ok on this trip. So, there's the one stop with a meal, and the other stop.... well we might spend 30 minutes instead of 15.

So there it is, for the "cost" of 15 minutes of our valuable time, we have another 6 months of never having to stop or go out of our way for gasoline. The convenience factor in our case is heavily weighted towards the EV. Add the hassle of smog tests, oil changes... I'm reminded of this since I just changed the oil on our gasser this weekend.

And truth be told, traffic at either end of this trip will have a far greater bearing on trip time than the time spent at stops. That 15 minutes will vanish into nothingness in the face of an L.A. rush-hour, or even some unexpected road construction.

Now, I've done the "road warrior" thing. I've driven from the Pacific Ocean to the shores of Lake Erie in 37 hours. And a couple of other similar trips. I get it. EV's can't do EVERYTHING as easily as a gasoline car. And nobody wants to feel like we're "giving up" something.

But really, most of life hasn't been those trips. They were tiring, a bit silly, and probably dangerous. I could have lived well without them. I've far more enjoyed the more leisurely trips. Neither time, nor money, is worth anything. It's how you spend it.

 

[jlv]

most ICE vehicles do not carry enough fuel to go 400 miles or do not get the MPG to get that far

My gas-guzzling Honda Odyssey will easily get 400 miles on a single tank with highway driving. I just took a 300-mile (one-way) trip in my van. I made one stop for a bathroom break (no gas). It took 10 minutes, and we were on the road again.

Thank you, Garsh. That's very similar to us: we regularly do a 430 mile trip in our Odyssey to my in-law's house, with generally one 10 minute stop for a bathroom break (two stops if my wife has had tea :roll.

 

[mkjayakumar]

That's very similar to us:

.. but that is atypical of a vast majority of drivers. The problem is, these edge cases are irrelevant to mass adoption of EVs. A high number of people realize that having a 45 minute break after 240 mile of driving is perfectly all right. At most it is in-convenient, and in the big scheme of things of never having the need to go to gas station you save a large number of hours over a the life time of owning the EV, that this inconvenience of waiting a bit more to get charged up (only during those long expeditions), is worth the trouble. In the end you gain a lot, and you lose some. Big deal.

I have a read scores of FUD articles on the net emphasizing how EVs will never take off unless you have 5 minute re-fueling and they all completely miss the point that EVs get charged everyday in your garage and it is only a nuisance during long trips - which is around I would think 5% of a typical drivers driving profile.

 

[garsh]

...these edge cases...

You are deluding yourself into thinking that these are edge cases.

Even the people who think that a 45-minute break is "perfectly all right", when given a choice between a car that will require such a break and one that requires only a 5-minute break, will choose the latter. Especially when the former option costs $10k more. Most people would rather not be forced to wait 45 minutes even if they would usually take a longer break.

Most people don't have an agenda to push EV adoption like we do. Those who do are willing to wait 45 minutes for a recharge. Hell, I'm willing to do so! But the vast, vast majority of people don't care, and will choose personal convenience first.

 

[GRA]

...these edge cases...

You are deluding yourself into thinking that these are edge cases.

Even the people who think that a 45-minute break is "perfectly all right", when given a choice between a car that will require such a break and one that requires only a 5-minute break, will choose the latter. Especially when the former option costs $10k more. Most people would rather not be forced to wait 45 minutes even if they would usually take a longer break.

Most people don't have an agenda to push EV adoption like we do. Those who do are willing to wait 45 minutes for a recharge. Hell, I'm willing to do so! But the vast, vast majority of people don't care, and will choose personal convenience first.

+1. Like many here, I'm more willing than most to alter my lifestyle to be greener. But for a road trip, if the car can't go at least 4 hours plus a reserve at freeway flow of traffic speeds in a wide range of temperatures, it will be extra hassle. In some cases it's hassle I'm willing to accept, but it all depends on the frequency with which I have to put up with it. And I don't confuse my willingness to structure my stops around the needs of the car rather than my own needs, with the mainstream's willingness to do so.

 

[dgpcolorado]

When the gas stops involve dropping $50+ into the tank and the charge stops cost nothing (beyond the option when buying the car) except some extra time, perhaps some people might be persuaded to choose "free" for the longer trips, versus "fast".

If gas prices better reflected the true costs of extracting and using oil the idea of dropping $100+ into the tank at a fill-up might make the Supercharger model look a bit more attractive.

Regardless, if the Model III pans out it should make EV fans like me happy because it CAN do longer trips, for which the urban commuter EVs, like the LEAF, aren't practical. As more EVs show up on the roads, perhaps more people will consider giving one a try. At least the Tesla model eliminates the "but you can't drive it across the country" argument. With a Tesla you can. It is a bit slower and less convenient but at least the fuel cost is free. For those who can't bear the thought of half hour charging stops, ICE cars aren't going away anytime soon.

 

[abasile]

And truth be told, traffic at either end of this trip will have a far greater bearing on trip time than the time spent at stops. That 15 minutes will vanish into nothingness in the face of an L.A. rush-hour, or even some unexpected road construction.

Yes, and I find traffic delays far less pleasant than charging stops. This past weekend we drove our LEAF ~170 miles round-trip down to the coast and back. A half hour QC session, followed by some additional L2 necessitated by our degraded battery and the QC stopping at 80% charge, had to be done before we could climb back up our mountain. The QC stop came right after being stuck in traffic behind a freeway accident for 40 minutes or so. By then, our family needed to stop anyway. Sure, it would have been nice if we hadn't needed to charge for ~50 minutes, but it wasn't that big a deal compared with being hemmed in on the freeway.

It'll take time to change minds, but over time I think many will come to regard Supercharging stops (or the equivalent) on long trips to be not such a big deal compared with the overall benefits of driving an EV. Of course, that assumes that enough chargers are installed to prevent long waits.

 

[garsh]

Regardless, if the Model III pans out it should make EV fans like me happy because it CAN do longer trips, for which the urban commuter EVs, like the LEAF, aren't practical.

I'm anxiously awaiting the Model III. I have friends & relatives who live 50+ miles away who I visit fairly regularly. I just can't take the Leaf on those trips. The Model III is still priced higher than what I like to spend on a vehicle, but it might be low enough that I can splurge a bit on the purchase.

 

[evnow]

+1. Like many here, I'm more willing than most to alter my lifestyle to be greener.

I don't think you are willing to make any changes at all.

But for a road trip, if the car can't go at least 4 hours plus a reserve at freeway flow of traffic speeds in a wide range of temperatures, it will be extra hassle. In some cases it's hassle I'm willing to accept, but it all depends on the frequency with which I have to put up with it. And I don't confuse my willingness to structure my stops around the needs of the car rather than my own needs, with the mainstream's willingness to do so.

Just go to Costco gas station and see how much time people are willing to wait for to get the gas 10 cents cheaper.

Anyway - the point is - this is a sliding scale, there will be more and more people willing to switch as the range & infrastructure improve. People who anyway take longer breaks will be willing to switch sooner than those who don't. We used to drive non-stop from St Louis to Chicago - 300 miles & 4 to 5 hours - that won't be possible now with 2 small kids.

 

[abasile]

+1. Like many here, I'm more willing than most to alter my lifestyle to be greener.

I don't think you are willing to make any changes at all.

That's a very judgmental attitude. GRA has stated in other threads that he avoids using a car for daily transportation. The fact that he drives an ICE on his longer trips doesn't mean he doesn't care about being "greener".

 

[Nubo]

Just go to Costco gas station and see how much time people are willing to wait for to get the gas 10 cents cheaper.

And, drive miles out of their way to do so!

Sort of blows away the concept of the de riguer 5-minute fuel stop.

 

[nosuchthing]

Wonder what the wait time may have been in the pic above...

 

[evnow]

That's a very judgmental attitude.

No - just a poke.

 

[GRA]

+1. Like many here, I'm more willing than most to alter my lifestyle to be greener.

I don't think you are willing to make any changes at all.

Yeah, you're right. Oh, except for deciding almost 15 years ago to move to a small, downtown studio apartment (actually a mother-in-law unit, which I think was formerly a carriage house) so that I could walk for all my errands, bike to work, and use a combination of public transit/walking/biking for the majority of my regional transit needs - the car is used only for inter-regional trips. My housing costs and transportation time went up, my transportation costs, living space, energy use and GHG production went down. I'm healthier so medical costs are probably down, and I'm definitely less stressed.

Oh, and then there's the use of passive solar heating and movable insulation instead of using the furnace for much of my heating; takes more time and awareness, and doesn't save me a dime as my utilities are included. Oh, and then I've been peeing in a jar for the past five months to save water, taking navy showers etc., even though, again, I don't (directly) pay for that.

Oh, except that I've altered my diet; I'm no vegetarian, but I now eat less beef than pork, less pork than poultry, more fruits, nuts and veggies, most of those bought at the farmer's market held every weekend 7 minutes walk from my place - although, considering that I live within 100 miles of the Central, Salinas and Napa valleys, whether there's actually any energy/GHG savings by buying from the farmers hauling their produce in smaller trucks, instead of from the supermarket in the next block (which hauls their produce in semis from the same places) strikes me as questionable. Oh, and then there's choosing foods with less packaging. Oh, and of course, we've had curbside recycling for a decade or two, and I'm religious about that.

But other than those, yeah, I'm unwilling to make any changes at all. Besides, what have the Romans ever done for us?! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9foi342LXQE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But for a road trip, if the car can't go at least 4 hours plus a reserve at freeway flow of traffic speeds in a wide range of temperatures, it will be extra hassle. In some cases it's hassle I'm willing to accept, but it all depends on the frequency with which I have to put up with it. And I don't confuse my willingness to structure my stops around the needs of the car rather than my own needs, with the mainstream's willingness to do so.

Just go to Costco gas station and see how much time people are willing to wait for to get the gas 10 cents cheaper.

Sure. Now look at all the other gas stations that are still in business despite charging prices far higher than Costco, because they're more conveniently located and/or have shorter waits. In my city, today's regular prices range from $3.73 (Costco and one Valero) to $4.26/gallon (a Chevron), per Gasbuddy. My corner Valero is $4.00/gallon. I'm a cheapskate; I won't buy gas there and can't even imagine paying Chevron's prices, but instead wait until I have to take a trip past one of the lower cost stations on my way out of or into town. But I won't wait in Costco-size lines, either, so I generally pay more than the lowest price per gallon so I can drive right up to the pump. Of course, if I don't have to go by one of those other stations, there's a problem. Although the corner station is more expensive per gallon, by the time I make a special trip to one of those other stations, I'll have burned more money in gas than I will have saved at the lower price. Given my driving habits that hasn't been a problem, yet.

Anyway - the point is - this is a sliding scale, there will be more and more people willing to switch as the range & infrastructure improve. People who anyway take longer breaks will be willing to switch sooner than those who don't. We used to drive non-stop from St Louis to Chicago - 300 miles & 4 to 5 hours - that won't be possible now with 2 small kids.

Absolutely. At the moment, the only long range BEV owners have Teslas, and they're far less price sensitive than most (reflected in the survey results that showed Tesla Model S owners rated government incentives lower among factors that made buying a PEV possible). As the price of long range BEVs come down to a more price-sensitive crowd, the number of people willing to trade time off against money will increase, simply because their time is worth less than people with higher incomes. But unless the price/time trade-off is compelling, they won't bother.

 

[SSS]

Does the new Reno "Mega-factory" alter any of the outlook toward Tesla/Musk?
IMHO, Musk arranged some amazing State incentives.