Official Tesla Model S thread

[mkjayakumar]

Tesla's aim is to produce 400 per week and they may end up with little over 1600 per month to meet the 20K per year target. Their current reservation rates will easily get them over 20K for 2103.

But 2014 is anyone's guess. The reservations will be split between S and X. If the current owners don't see any major issues and the Supercharging infrastructure rolls out as promised I guess they should be able to manage 20K+ for 2014 too. Beyond that their future is very much tied to Gen III - its range and price point.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

lot of interest in Mercedes and high end Audi's but that does not seem to increase sales among people who simply cannot shell that kind of cash.

i think they will do well against other cars in the same price class but only because we will see movement from people who normally would not pay that much for a car but that will not be significant

 

[qwk]

Boy, you guys are hard to please. I think it's a gorgeous cross between a Maserati and the newer Jaguars! Sure it blends in with other luxury cars, but what more would you want? It sure as h*ll doesn't blend in with your garden variety cars. Though I have to admit, some of the new Hyundai's are getting awfully sexy looking... Maybe that's the problem?

I would say someone hard to please is not going to be driving a leaf.

Some people pay for quality and some don't. Apple comes to mind.

 

[Phoenix]

I finalized my Model S order tonight, delivery estimate is now February / March 2013

Which battery capacity? Is it a performance and/or signature model?

85KW, Dolphin Grey with Grey leather interior, most options (only missing rear fold down seats & paint protection, getting the dual 10KW chargers), non-performance / non-signature (0-60 in 5.6 seconds is plenty for me), came out to about $89K. I'll have paper work within 24 hours or so to sign.

This is all part of Teslas push to get common production model slots batched together for production planning / parts procurement purposes. Also once you get the "finalize email" (as I did tonight), you have 4 weeks to finalize, if you don't, no problem, but you are subject to the $2,500 price increase when you do finalize after the 4 weeks have passed... Also the sooner you get your order finalized, the sooner your production slot will be scheduled (and Tesla has your $5,000 deposit locked up now as well)

Mitch672: Does the nonperformance, non-signature qualify you for lifetime free charging on the Superchargers?

 

[mkjayakumar]

Lifetime free supercharging is for any Tesla that has hardware and software to supercharge. This includes all 85 kWh, and those 60 kWh that has the super charging hardware installed and enabled.

Supercharging hardware on 60 kWh is an option that costs $2K extra one time cost when you buy the car. In 85 kWh it comes as standard. No Superchargers option for 45 kWh model

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I wonder how many folks are in our boat. If you had told me a couple of years ago that we would be considering scraping change together, selling some stuff off, even going down to one car and taking out a big loan to buy an 80K car, maybe even the performance version, I would have told you you were nuts and ok, maybe we're nuts, LOL, but that is where we are at. by no means is this a casual splurge. I suspect a whole bunch of people are finding their way to buying up in car class when it comes to moving to the S due to a bunch of factors (fast charging, ICE-like range, guilt free superior performance and an utter lack of viable competition, when everyone else in the game appears to be stumbling). I think what we are seeing is that it's not really price that is holding back the sales of pure EV's but rather the constraint has been a lack of a sense of value, a sense that adopters would have to sacrifice too much for the cost. the iMiev is cheaper and is barely breaking 40 a month, Telsa is dolling out 90 a day and with all the recent awards, they are getting away with raising their prices and reservations are still going through the roof, and these aren't hand raisers, these are folks forking over $5K! I agree that this is unintuitive, I would have guessed that affordability would be key, and I think it still is long term, but for this particular moment in the path of the EV towards acceptance into the mass market, things are simply not as they would have seemed. Tesla, it turns out, has found that the Apple model of high end excellence is what it is taking to open up the flood gates and crack the code of EV's breaking into the mainstream. time will tell if that is pent up niche demand or if it's really due to having nailed so many dimensions of the EV experience that people are willing to make big sacrifices to jump into an S, ASAP. It appears to me that Tesla is at least 10 steps ahead of everyone else at this point, I believe they will be credited with making EV's irresistible to the masses and eventually, that will lead to affordability.

lot of interest in Mercedes and high end Audi's but that does not seem to increase sales among people who simply cannot shell that kind of cash.

i think they will do well against other cars in the same price class but only because we will see movement from people who normally would not pay that much for a car but that will not be significant

 

[evnow]

I suspect a whole bunch of people are finding their way to buying up in car class when it comes to moving to the S due to a bunch of factors (fast charging, ICE-like range, guilt free superior performance and an utter lack of viable competition, when everyone else in the game appears to be stumbling). I think what we are seeing is that it's not really price that is holding back the sales of pure EV's but rather the constraint has been a lack of a sense of value, a sense that adopters would have to sacrifice too much for the cost.

You are not alone.

But then, there were people sometime back buying a lot more expensive asset - homes they couldn't afford.

While I can see people going up a little to buy EVs ( may be even upto 50% more than normal) - paying 2 to 3 times more will be the exception.

It is quite possible that Tesla will find a way to sell 2k cars per month. But that can't be sustained by people buying much above their pay grade. It has to come from some of those 50,000 luxury cars that get sold every month.

 

[mitch672]

If you factor in fuel savings per year, you can afford more car than you think, especially if your keeping the car for 8 years (85KW model is 8 years unlimited mileage)

 

[evnow]

If you factor in fuel savings per year, you can afford more car than you think, especially if your keeping the car for 8 years (85KW model is 8 years unlimited mileage)

Yes, that is the reason I'm saying people may pay even upto 50% more. Fuel charges are never much more than that for personal use.

BTW, high mileage EVs need to factor in battery replacement. If you factor that in, usually the fuel savings disappear.

The best method to check would be to calculate the monthly lease rate + insurance + fuel + maintenance. Considering S has no lease (subsidized, anyway), it will always be much more expensive than a car that costs half as much.

Someone buying an S - way above their pay grade - is no different than someone buying an expensive sports car (way above their pay grade). There will always be people who do that - but it will remain a niche even within the small niche.

 

[dgpcolorado]

If you factor in fuel savings per year, you can afford more car than you think, especially if your keeping the car for 8 years (85KW model is 8 years unlimited mileage)

That depends on how much one drives and what the alternative car is. Even if I assume the electricity is free—for me it is since my solar panels are paid for—my savings in not buying gas are about $1100 a year at current prices (~$3.50/gallon). I'm afraid that won't help all that much to afford an $85K car. For me a LEAF was a major stretch financially, since it cost substantially more than than my annual income and I saved for many years to pay for it.

While I hope that there at lots of wealthy folks like you who can and will buy a Model S, so that Tesla survives as a functioning car company, it is by no means certain. As with ICE luxury cars, I'd guess that the cost of gas isn't much of a factor with most of those who can pay that much for a car.

 

[mitch672]

Tesla has no leasing - yet. That's going to get done / be availble in 2013 sometime.

The replacement pack prices have already been announced - sort of. If you "prebuy" the pack now, for installation anytime after the 8th year:

40KW $8,000
60KW $10,000
85KW $12,000

There's risk on both sides, Tesa banks your money for 8 years, you hope Tesla stays in business.
They hope battery prices come down substantially, but even if they don't, your 8 year old battery has quite a bit of residual value even with only %70 capacity left in "fixed" storage applications, so they recover some costs that way.

BTW, I considered and rejected the Leaf, even had a reservation, but, because of the limited highway range, couldnt go through with it... I have no need for multiple cars, but the Model S is a good fit, no need for any other car. I don't consider myself a luxury car driver, btw.

 

[surfingslovak]

TThe replacement pack prices have already been announced - sort of. If you "prebuy" the pack now, for installation anytime after the 8th year.

I believe this mirrors closely what they offered for the Roadster in terms of pack replacement pre-purchase. Except the per kWh price is much lower now.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

when it comes to EV market evolution, the prize at the end of the tunnel is mass production, the question is always how to get there. I think what each manufacturer is clambering to find are the ideal stepping stones along the way. Tesla doesn't need the S to sell even 50,000 a year to make it to the next level, I believe the stated goal is a mere 20K. All they need is a niche, a larger niche than the roadster but it doesn't need to equate into sustained sales year after year. The S, just like the Roadster, won't even need to stay in production when the time comes. the question has been, do you start at the bottom of the economic pyramid and work your way up or start at the top and work your way down. Maybe i'm drinking the cool aid, but their model of starting with the Roadster in a small niche market giving way to a larger market in the S and ultimately all as a means to reach the economy of scale necessary to finance a more affordable mass market model is brilliant, and so far its working much better than the bottom up attempts. the bottom up approach is falling short at each rung of the ladder whereas the top down approach is dazzling at every step. Dazzling is what gets the headlines and ultimately leads to the kind of brand loyalty that every manufacturer dreams of, it's the golden road to unlimited devotion... Tesla is approaching this point, IMHO, and if they play their cards right this may lead not just to the success of EV's making it into the mainstream, but the EV becoming the new standard by which all new cars will be compared, and in historic terms it is happening overnight, and not a moment too soon. What is at stake of course, is climate stability and how severe the 7th phase of mass extinction and the coming age of super storms and economic ruin is going to be.

I suspect a whole bunch of people are finding their way to buying up in car class when it comes to moving to the S due to a bunch of factors (fast charging, ICE-like range, guilt free superior performance and an utter lack of viable competition, when everyone else in the game appears to be stumbling). I think what we are seeing is that it's not really price that is holding back the sales of pure EV's but rather the constraint has been a lack of a sense of value, a sense that adopters would have to sacrifice too much for the cost.

You are not alone.

But then, there were people sometime back buying a lot more expensive asset - homes they couldn't afford.

While I can see people going up a little to buy EVs ( may be even upto 50% more than normal) - paying 2 to 3 times more will be the exception.

It is quite possible that Tesla will find a way to sell 2k cars per month. But that can't be sustained by people buying much above their pay grade. It has to come from some of those 50,000 luxury cars that get sold every month.

 

[ebill3]

Never before in my wildest dreams would I even consider spending ~80k for a car. I have lusted for a high end Mercedes, or a 7 series Beemer, but just would not consider paying that kind of money.

Now I want a luxury 250 mile EV, and I'm going to get it - if I live long enough.

 

[tbleakne]

I finalized my Model S order tonight, delivery estimate is now February / March 2013

Which battery capacity? Is it a performance and/or signature model?

85KW, Dolphin Grey with Grey leather interior, most options (only missing rear fold down seats & paint protection, getting the dual 10KW chargers), non-performance / non-signature (0-60 in 5.6 seconds is plenty for me), came out to about $89K. I'll have paper work within 24 hours or so to sign.

This is all part of Teslas push to get common production model slots batched together for production planning / parts procurement purposes. Also once you get the "finalize email" (as I did tonight), you have 4 weeks to finalize, if you don't, no problem, but you are subject to the $2,500 price increase when you do finalize after the 4 weeks have passed... Also the sooner you get your order finalized, the sooner your production slot will be scheduled (and Tesla has your $5,000 deposit locked up now as well)

Your order number of 1010 suggests you are at the very front of the non-signature production queue, because my understanding is that only 1000 Signature models are being produced. If your delivery estimate is Feb/Mar, it would seem Tesla's amended forecast of at least 2500 units produced by the end of 2012 is way off. I know there is some batching of similar orders, but this seems like quite a discrepancy. Am I missing something ?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Your order number of 1010 suggests you are at the very front of the non-signature production queue, because my understanding is that only 1000 Signature models are being produced. If your delivery estimate is Feb/Mar, it would seem Tesla's amended forecast of at least 2500 units produced by the end of 2012 is way off. I know there is some batching of similar orders, but this seems like quite a discrepancy. Am I missing something ?

I know someone who took delivery of his Tesla S on Monday. his was VIN 1267

we thought we had to wait a long time for a Tesla. he put his deposit down March 9, 2009. although not sure that date is correct but that is what it says. though i remember him saying when he did it and I thought it was closer to march of 2010...but either way. still envious

 

[Zythryn]

...
Your order number of 1010 suggests you are at the very front of the non-signature production ...Am I missing something ?

Yes, I believe you are missing a 0 in his order number
(It reads 10010)

 

[Randy]

I hold Tesla S reservation number 9963, and also received the email invitation to finalize my order last night (they sent the note out to others in the 10,000-ish range. When I was complete, the website said the delivery window was Feb - March 2013, but after signing the online purchase contract and receiving it back from Tesla today, the contract had the timeframe updated to April - May 2013. I ordered the new Sunset Red color, which doesn't start shipping until March, so that may be responsible for the slight delay...

 

[mitch672]

...
Your order number of 1010 suggests you are at the very front of the non-signature production ...Am I missing something ?

Yes, I believe you are missing a 0 in his order number
(It reads 10010)

Right 10010, ten thousand and ten. I only reserved on July 2nd 2012, so I could test drive in Mawah, NJ at the "Get AMPed" tour. I finalized my order tonight, submitted the "MVPA" (Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement), my deposit is now non-refundable.

Edit: Randy, my delivery date may be delayed as well, a I am getting the Grey leather interior, which doesn't enter production until March 2013.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I got my notice as well. taking the kids car seats over and doing another test drive on Thursday before pulling the trigger. do you know what combination gets the fastest delivery vs what delays the most, assuming an 85 kW (I know the 40 and 60 are coming later)?

when I called today, the Bellevue store rep said they were up to 90 cars a day now... wow!

...
Your order number of 1010 suggests you are at the very front of the non-signature production ...Am I missing something ?

Yes, I believe you are missing a 0 in his order number
(It reads 10010)

Right 10010, ten thousand and ten. I only reserved on July 2nd 2012, so I could test drive in Mawah, NJ at the "Get AMPed" tour. I finalized my order tonight, submitted the "MVPA" (Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement), my deposit is now non-refundable.

Edit: Randy, my delivery date may be delayed as well, a I am getting the Grey leather interior, which doesn't enter production until March 2013.